Markets are holding out for a Fed policy pivot in 2023
- As the Federal Reserve prepares to unveil its latest policy direction, investors are hoping for a smaller interest rate rise than those of recent months
- If delivered, it would be a promising sign that the Fed is shifting focus from fighting inflation to keeping jobs and growth buoyant in 2023
The key question is whether inflation or growth is the key driver for Fed policy right now. Inflation expectations may not be falling away as quickly as some might like in the US, but it’s worries about the outlook for recovery and jobs which should dominate in 2023, with the Fed keeping a cautious eye on the chances of the US economy getting stuck below optimum output potential for rather longer than it would choose.
Also, the implied five-year forward inflation expectations rate derived from the US Treasury curve has stabilised at 2.2 per cent, in line with the Fed’s 2 per cent inflation goal. It all suggests that the worst of the 2022 inflation scare is over.
Labour market will determine when US Fed stops raising interest rates
The FOMC’s economic projections, which will be issued this week alongside its rate policy decision, should provide some further clues to the Fed’s thinking and whether inflation angst is giving way to greater concerns about the outlook for jobs and growth. In September’s projections, the Fed was anticipating 2023 growth coming down to 1.2 per cent, unemployment rising to 4.4 per cent and inflation easing to 2.8 per cent.
If FOMC projections published this week emphasise more sluggish recovery, weaker job prospects and easier inflation risks, it should be clear that the script has changed and the Fed’s monetary thrust could be changing for the better.
A relatively less hawkish tone from the Fed should be cathartic for US interest rate expectations. US money market futures have been anticipating the Fed funds rate peaking at 5 per cent early next year from the current 4 per cent, implying two further half-percentage-point moves before the Fed’s tightening cycle comes to an end.
With inflation likely to ease next year, the Fed is expected to bring the funds rate back down to 4.5 per cent towards end-2023, with an implied target range of around 3 to 4 per cent from 2024 onwards. This would be in line with a return to a more “normal” level of policy rates, consistent with sustainable, long-run US growth potential at 2 per cent coupled with a 2 per cent inflation target.
Hopefully this week should be confirmation that we have turned the corner and the end is nigh for the Fed’s inflation angst.
David Brown is the chief executive of New View Economics