COP27: global climate change progress too slow to stop disastrous temperature rise

While some countries have made aggressive climate change pledges and taken action to live up to them, others are lagging behind or even going backwards
Climate finance, adaptation strategies, mitigation and compensation are all likely to be on the table at the UN climate change conference in Egypt

Kavitha Yarlagadda

Published: 10:00pm, 1 Nov 2022

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With the latest UN climate summit fast approaching, climate goals of different countries take centre stage. Many countries have made aggressive climate goals, but how far have these nations progressed in terms of action? Are they in line to achieve their goals?

Some of the inaction might be because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing energy crisis, making nations rush for fossil fuels. But there is positive news with rising investment in renewable energy sources and increasing sales of electric vehicles. The crisis is speeding up the clean energy transition.

In 2013, China was filled with smog and pollution and presented a very gloomy picture to the rest of the world. The air quality index was 993 in certain neighbourhoods, and living in Beijing became dangerous.

Seeing these images alongside the data was scary. After the 2015 Paris climate agreement, China set up aggressive targets and has shown rapid growth in clean energy technology in the last 10 years. It has put itself on top as the global marketer for clean alternatives.

China has transformed itself into a world leader in manufacturing solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles. It has become a climate leader and intends to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2060.

What is not working for China is that it burns large amounts of coal. Meanwhile, cooperation with the United States on climate change could be difficult because of a loss of trust. Cheap labour, development in heavy industries such as steel and cement and growing the economy have had a huge impact on increasing carbon emissions in China.

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For China, this isn’t a debate about science; China accepts the science behind reducing emissions and phasing out coal. Hence its aggressive plans to decarbonise and meet its climate goals, and it’s showing the world its commitment by being the major producer, consumer and investor of renewables and electric vehicles.

Beijing’s announcement of its climate goals provides the impetus for climate action by other countries. But even as countries such as India and China are committed to their climate agreements, the US paints a disappointing picture on its climate goals. Former US president Donald Trump withdrew the US from the Paris agreement, costing climate change efforts four years of valuable time.

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Under Trump, the US rolled back or stopped many climate policies started by his predecessor Barack Obama. The country’s nationally determined contribution under the Paris agreement is a 50 to 52 per cent decrease in emissions from 2005 levels by 2030, which seems difficult given the current political and economic climate in the US. Recent analysis by the Rhodium Group estimates US emissions will only fall 17 to 25 per cent by 2030.

This means the US would be well short of achieving its climate goals and need years for it to achieve actual change. It would take a mix of new federal rules and infrastructure investment to clean up power plants, factories, residences and cars to achieve its targets.

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While India is the second-largest consumer of coal after China, it is also making ambitious climate goals. It has pledged it will reduce carbon emissions by 45 per cent and generate half its power from renewable sources by 2030. India also aims to reach net zero emissions by 2070 and increase its capacity of non-fossil fuel energy to 500 gigawatts by 2030.

The upcoming climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, promises important discussions, decisions and collaboration. Climate adaptation will be the main topic of discussion.

Small island states and developing nations will continue to emphasise in negotiation chambers how many nations lack the resources to address climate change consequences. While India progresses with its plans to use a combination of fossil fuels and low-carbon energy to drive its economic growth, it has vowed to press for greater climate finance for developing countries.

COP27: Rich nations must pay for climate damage in poor states

According to a World Meteorological Organization report, global greenhouse gases have reached record levels. Carbon dioxide emissions have risen 149 per cent from pre-industrial levels, with methane emissions up 262 per cent and nitrous oxide up 124 per cent. The warming effect on our climate – known as radiative forcing – from greenhouse gases that stay in the atmosphere rose nearly 50 per cent between 1990 and 2021, driven largely by rises in carbon dioxide emissions.

With world temperatures already 1.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, we are quickly running out of time to limit temperature rises to 1.5 degrees.

The past year saw heatwaves break out across much of the world, including China, Britain, Europe, India and Pakistan. There were also severe storms and floods, with a third of Pakistan being left submerged. While some developing nations push for climate finance, mitigation and financing losses stemming from climate change will also take priority at the climate summit.

As things stand, the world seems to be on track for 2.5 degrees of warming even if many countries achieve their climate goals. While the pace of investing in renewable energy and adaptation measures and the push for more climate financing increases, it is imperative that every country acts now and pushes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Kavitha Yarlagadda is an independent writer based in Hyderabad, India