Why fall in public trust, not obesity or pollution, drove Hong Kong’s surge in Covid-19 deaths
- Hong Kong’s performance in handling the pandemic is admirable on a global scale but anomalous compared to its peers in East Asia
- Several factors have been suggested as explaining the city’s unusually high number of deaths, but the evidence points to poor levels of public trust
What has become increasingly clear across the world since the outset of pandemic is that national policy is seldom the prime factor in determining Covid-19 levels. Income per head and consequent age distributions are of particular statistical significance.
Generally, rich nations have had far more cases of Covid-19 than other countries. Europe and the United States represent about 15 per cent of world population but have contributed more than 50 per cent of global Covid-19 cases. The exception to this grand global divergence remains high-income East Asia with its low overall Covid-19 case numbers.
However, in focusing on Hong Kong we might say that while the city has been more effective in fighting the pandemic than Europe and the US in general, its performance within East Asia is not exceptional.
Hong Kong’s registered deaths per million from Covid-19 stand at about 1,370. This is significantly high within East Asia, where the range of the other four advanced East Asia economies excluding mainland China lies between 302 and 557.
This compares with population densities of 7,919 for Singapore, 652 for Taiwan, 531 for South Korea and 346 for Japan. High density and the likelihood of quick virus diffusion could help explain the rises in both Covid-19 cases and mortality in Hong Kong.
Greenpeace’s air quality ranking placed Hong Kong as more polluted than Taiwan, Singapore and Japan. On a comparative basis within East Asia, it is feasible that high population density plus high pollution levels contribute strongly to the higher Covid-19 figures for Hong Kong. However, Singapore with its much lower mortality from Covid-19 has comparable levels of pollution and density.
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If these general, non-governance factors seem insufficient in explaining the sudden rise above the East Asia mortality level for Hong Kong, then we must turn to the possibility of either governance or civil society acquiescence as active factors. They are factors that could explain the change in Hong Kong’s relative pandemic fortunes in the last year or so.
In contrast, factors such as obesity, pollution or high population density have not altered in degree or character in the last 1,000 days, so they can hardly explain the significant alteration to a higher mortality rate by themselves.
The clue could lie in the mortality rate and the timing of its increase. The peak of deaths in wealthy nations outside Asia last year is well-known – January 12, 2021 for the US, January 14 for Germany and January 21 for Britain.
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East Asian countries generally reached 80 per cent of their population having at least one Covid-19 vaccine dose between August 2021 and January this year, but in Hong Kong it took until late February.
The failure of civil acquiescence generated a rejection of vaccines and other anti-pandemic provisions that allowed other embedded factors such as obesity and pollution to work in raising mortality levels to those above what would be expected for East Asia. It was not so much a failure of policy as a growing divergence between government and civil society. The later, speedy action by the government to increase vaccination was too late to prevent the rising morbidity levels.
Ian Inkster, PhD, is professorial research associate at the Centre of Taiwan Studies, SOAS, University of London