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Climate activists hold placards as world leaders meet at the COP26 UN Climate Summit in Glasgow on November 1. Photo: AFP
Opinion
Dennis J. Snower
Dennis J. Snower

Meeting global climate targets requires systemic change. Can we turn failure into success?

  • Despite the agreements reached at COP26, the world is still not equipped to take collective climate action
  • For this to change, we need policies that do not disproportionately hurt poor countries and a more inclusive decision-making process that puts affected communities at the centre of negotiations
The world failed at last month’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26). And the biggest failure is one that virtually everybody assembled in Glasgow overlooked. The system in place to address climate change – comprising a constellation of economic, political and social arrangements – is inappropriate to our global goals.

Consider an analogy: your neighbourhood is threatened by an approaching wildfire. Managing the crisis requires mobilising various emergency services, as well as help from businesses and local residents to protect property.

But these parties do not cooperate. Some citizens show up with pails of water. Some businesses donate fire extinguishers. Some locals stage protests against proposed evacuation orders.

Meanwhile, local politicians hold a town hall meeting, soliciting pledges from various parties that no one is bound to fulfil. But the sum of the pledges just about keeps alive hopes that your neighbourhood will remain safe.

That is where we stand today on climate change. The fundamental problem is that our system is not designed to deliver outcomes consistent with the 2015 Paris climate agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
If fulfilled – a big if – the pledges in the Glasgow climate pact put the world on course for a temperature increase of between 2.5 degrees and 2.7 degrees by the end of the century. That would be disastrous.

Our economies are designed to be GDP-maximisation machines, our businesses aim to maximise shareholder value, and our politicians seek to maximise voter approval. In this system, economic prosperity and political success have become decoupled from social stability and environmental health.

In the face of such systemic failure, we should not feel encouraged by examples of successful green businesses and of investors decarbonising their portfolios.
Without government intervention requiring all firms to be environmentally responsible, the green business of some companies will allow others to act unsustainably. Combating climate change requires deliberate collaboration between business and government.

Fortunately, we already know what needs to be done to achieve the necessary collective mobilisation. Leaders should follow the late Nobel laureate Elinor Ostrom’s core principles for managing the commons effectively.

First, a shared identity and purpose are vital. Limiting global warming is an inherently global goal: greenhouse gases emitted anywhere affect people everywhere. We therefore need to develop a sense of common identification with this goal.

Performers conduct a funeral ceremony at Glasgow Cathedral to symbolise the failure of previous climate talks, during the COP26 UN Climate Change Conference, on November 13. Photo: AFP

But the COP26 negotiations were structured to pit national interests against one another, rather than promoting a sense of humanity.

A second key principle is to ensure that the costs and benefits of climate action are distributed equitably among all parties. Most experts agree that efficient decarbonisation would require the implementation of a global carbon price, either through carbon taxes or through emissions-rights trading.

Because a ton of carbon dioxide causes the same damage no matter where it is emitted, it makes sense in theory for everyone to face the same carbon price.

This would prevent the problem of “carbon leakage”, which occurs when a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in one country leads to increased emissions in another country that has a lower carbon price.

But such an approach may be socially unsustainable. The poor and middle classes would probably struggle to afford the higher prices of carbon-intensive goods and services, while the resulting decline in employment in carbon-intensive sectors may leave workers without jobs and communities without an economic base. COP26 was not designed to deliver the social prerequisites for efficient climate action.

Men guide sheep away from an advancing fire on August 2 in Marmaris, Turkey. Officials blamed the deadly heatwaves and wildfires that gripped southeastern Europe this summer on climate change. Photo: AFP
Third, successful climate action requires fair and inclusive decision-making. Many have claimed that the COP26 negotiations excluded those most affected by the impending climate catastrophe – and those in positions of power (often elderly, white, male and privileged) have a vested interest in keeping it that way.

But the groups that are being disempowered – typically, young people from developing countries and marginalised cultures – frequently have the insight, local knowledge and, most of all, the sense of urgency that comes from the prospect of facing the most immediate consequences of climate change.

Several other principles are key to addressing global warming effectively. The outcomes of agreed-upon actions should be measured and reported year after year, with graduated rewards for helpful actions and sanctions for unhelpful ones.

In addition, climate action requires fast and fair conflict-resolution mechanisms involving impartial mediators. The authority to self-govern should be recognised at the supranational level, in all relevant international forums.

Lastly, we need polycentric governance. International, national, regional and local governing bodies must coordinate to conclude and enforce agreements.

COP26 made little, if any, attempt to satisfy these requirements. Governments reached no agreement on how to measure or report on greenhouse gas emissions.

There are no rewards or sanctions for national performance on climate change, because the COP26 recommendations are not legally binding. Nor are there effective conflict-resolution mechanisms in place.

And although countries’ sovereign authority is recognised, the absence of a polycentric governance system means that climate policy from the international to the local level remains neglected, inconsistent and incoherent.

Of course, fulfilling these requirements is a tall order and will not happen overnight. But the next generation has a right to expect that we try to create the social, economic and political prerequisites for successful climate action.

Dennis J. Snower, president of the Global Solutions Initiative, is a professor at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, senior research fellow at the Blavatnik School of Government at Oxford University, and a non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution. Copyright: Project Syndicate
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