COP26: even with Xi’s absence, China’s climate actions speak louder than words

Given China’s manufacturing heft, it is no surprise that it is the world’s biggest carbon emitter
But Beijing is taking practical measures to transition to a carbon neutral economy, and inspiring other developing countries in the process

Neal Kimberley

Published: 2:30pm, 9 Nov 2021

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Although US President Joe Biden has understandably sought to gain political capital from Chinese President Xi Jinping’s absence from COP26, the UN climate conference in Glasgow, Beijing’s actions speak louder than words. Indeed, China’s plan to achieve a carbon neutral economy by 2060 may prove to be a template for many developing countries.

“I think it’s been a big mistake, quite frankly … with respect to China not showing up,” Biden said at COP26 last week. “The rest of the world is going to look to China and say, ‘what value-added are they providing?’”

Well, in the first place, as regards the optics of COP26, although Xi himself didn’t travel to Scotland, China sent a senior team of delegates and is engaging in the process.

That’s in stark contrast to the United States’ patchy recent record on climate change, although the current administration might prefer not to acknowledge it. Indeed, China was “not the one who withdrew from the #ParisAgreement”, as Zhang Jun, China’s ambassador to the United Nations, tweeted last week, in a telling reference to the actions of Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump.

Back in Glasgow, Biden argued: “By showing up, we’ve had a profound impact on the way I think the rest of the world is looking at the United States and its leadership role.” He clearly sought to draw a line under the Trump years, but also to claim the moral high ground over China on the climate change issue.

Of course, it’s not difficult for Biden, or indeed other Western leaders, to level criticism at China about carbon emissions.

After all, given China’s manufacturing heft, it is undeniable, though hardly unexpected, that the country is the world’s biggest carbon emitter. Last year, China emitted 31 per cent of the world’s fossil fuel carbon dioxide, followed by the US at 14 per cent. Yet on a per capita basis, the US is a much bigger carbon emitter than China, a fact that often gets overlooked.

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Nevertheless, China has set out a strategy to hit peak carbon emissions by 2030 and create a carbon neutral economy by 2060, a process that will require the country to meet a number of significant milestones along the way.

Western nations might argue that the timetable is too slow, but the West needs to be realistic: the Chinese economy is like a supertanker on the open seas. Changing direction takes time.

Nor should the West forget that in offshoring manufacturing to the Chinese economy in recent decades to take advantage of lower production costs while satisfying the demands of Western consumers, the West has also effectively offshored carbon emissions to China.

As it stands, from a practical perspective, Beijing pledged back in September to stop funding overseas coal plants.

Admittedly, China was not among the more than 40 nations at COP26 that committed to phasing out domestic coal power in the next few decades. But then nor was the US.

As regards pursuing renewable energy as a viable alternative to fossil fuels, China continues to forge ahead, as Xi emphasised during a virtual appearance at the UN Biodiversity Conference, COP15, in Kunming.

In fact, China is at the centre of worldwide demand and supply for renewables, having accounted for around 40 per cent of global capacity growth for several years, an International Energy Agency report said in May.

By the end of 2020, China had 281.5GW of wind generation capacity and 253.4GW of solar, according to the National Energy Administration. Last December, Xi committed China to raising the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 25 per cent by 2030 and increasing total installed wind and solar capacity to 1,200GW over the same period.

These are practical measures that provide a road map for moving gradually from overall fossil fuel dependency to carbon neutrality, while still staying on a pathway to greater economic prosperity.

A similar logic also underpins India’s 2070 net zero strategy, unveiled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at COP26.

Xi may have been a no-show at Glasgow but it’s what China is doing that really matters. Beijing’s value-add to the COP26 process really derives from the strategy China has adopted to achieve a carbon-neutral economy in 2060, a succession of practical measures that might well prove an attractive template for other developing nations.

Neal Kimberley is a commentator on macroeconomics and financial markets