Afghanistan and its extremist elements are China’s problem now

Despite the Taliban’s reassurances, Beijing’s options will remain limited if violence flares up
But giving the Taliban economic support also risks strengthening extremist groups such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement

Brian P. Klein

Published: 1:00am, 25 Aug 2021

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US troops and a small cadre of diplomats are mired in a hasty, ill-planned departure from Kabul. That’s a massive problem for China. For the past 20 years, extremism has been kept at bay despite a losing war over nation-building. When the last cargo plane leaves, extremists will be in charge.

This poses a unique challenge for Beijing, one that will not be easily solved by lavishing development and reconstruction funds on the Taliban. The US spent at least US$30 billion on reconstruction efforts, US$24 billion on economic development and US$10 billion on counter-narcotics efforts.

Humanitarian assistance totalled US$3.9 billion from 2002-2019. That did not root out extremist elements or guarantee a stable government. It did not unite historically warring tribal factions. And there’s little reason that similar efforts by Beijing will yield a better outcome.

The Taliban’s charm offensive on China is already in full swing. Spokesman Suhail Shaheen said in early July that the Taliban regards China as a “friend”. He offered protection for Chinese investment and workers.

Later that month, when Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tianjin, Baradar promised that “the territory of Afghanistan will not be used against security of any country including China”, according to Shaheen.

01:43

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These are not credible reassurances. Despite similar assertions to the US and former Afghan government, the Taliban maintained ties with many extremist groups. Of particular concern to China is the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which has been tolerated by the new leadership in Kabul, if not directly supported.

The Taliban’s assertions that they will not allow these groups to target other countries, like its other recent claims, cannot be taken at face value.

Several assurances have already been broken since the Taliban has taken power. Despite saying that people supportive of the previous government would not be targeted, Ghulam M. Isaczai, the UN representative for Afghanistan, said in an emergency meeting that Taliban fighters are going house to house searching for people on a target list.

Afghanistan’s new rulers have already shifted their stance on how women and girls will be treated. At first, they said their rights would remain. A day later, they announced that sharia law will be imposed with a council of scholars deciding their fate.

03:59

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Unless their radical interpretation of Islamic law has changed in the past 20 years, and there is little to suggest it has, the gains made over the last two decades will be rolled back.

The Taliban’s grip on power is also tenuous. It has not been able to quell violence as Americans and allied Afghans try to make their way to the airport to escape. The White House is now concerned about terrorist attacks within Afghanistan by enemies of the Taliban. And a nascent civil war is brewing with a rebellion of armed Afghans forcing the Taliban from several villages.

Beijing’s options will remain limited if violence flares up and ETIM gains strength. There is even the possibility that a Taliban crackdown on this group could spur unity among other more militant groups that were instrumental in pushing out the US.

01:28

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China will be challenged to act if threats increase across the border, even though direct intervention abroad has not been part of official Chinese foreign policy. Movement of troops to contested borders with India, military support for Pakistan, and an increasingly belligerent stance in the contested South China Sea, suggest a more forceful foreign policy going forward.

One mistake China is unlikely to repeat is the failed US effort at nation-building. Mission creep is a bane of foreign policy. Washington’s goal after September 11 was clear – deny any safe haven for terrorists that attacked the US.

That mission was largely accomplished when Osama bin Laden was killed in 2011. And then a new goal of nation-building took hold among Washington policymakers with the promise of rebuilding Afghanistan into a moderate, democratic nation.

That was a step too far for a country still dominated by ethnic divisions and with no history of a modern unified state governed by a central Kabul authority. Political infighting, favouritism and corruption eroded any chance of success.

A trillion dollars later, the US military presence wound down, the Afghan military turned tail, and the capital fell in hours. No amount of money, military training or political support could stop the downfall.

02:08

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So China is left with a conundrum. If it economically supports the Taliban, which tolerates extremist groups, Beijing may inadvertently strengthen these organisations.

The Taliban will need to pay extremists to remain compliant with their political aims and not cause trouble for Chinese development projects. With an estimated US$1 trillion to US$3 trillion in minerals and rare earth metals at stake, these financial incentives could be lucrative.

At the same time, the Taliban’s lack of governance experience could easily lead to civil strife as rival factions inevitably chafe at Kabul’s control. That outcome threatens Beijing’s ability to use its economic leverage for security guarantees.

Certainly, the Taliban will say all the right things in its pursuit of as much aid and development yuan as it can attract. But sooner or later, political aims will overtake economic gains.

The only real question is whether Beijing will be lulled into the same false confidence that plagued Washington in its attempt to influence Afghanistan’s leaders, all while being fleeced at the same time.

Brian P. Klein (@brianpklein) is a geopolitical and economic strategist and former US diplomat