US-China relations: what Biden’s and Xi’s picks for ambassador could mean

The US could be signalling a return to diplomacy, with the rumoured choice of a diplomat with Nato experience for ambassador to China. However, the likely replacement for Beijing’s man in Washington suggests wolf warrior diplomacy may be here to stay

Chi Wang

Published: 1:00am, 17 Jul 2021

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The United States and China are both in the process of appointing new ambassadors to serve in each other’s capitals. In Beijing, the post has been vacant since US ambassador Terry Branstad stepped down last October.

Meanwhile, Chinese ambassador Cui Tiankai is retiring after eight years in Washington. The vacancies come as Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping court allies amid tense US-China relations.

Ongoing tensions and travel concerns during the pandemic have limited high-level exchanges of government officials, making it all the more imperative to fill the vacant ambassadorships. The individuals picked to represent Biden and Xi in each other’s capital may send strong messages about how each leader expects to engage with the other in the immediate future.

In the 1980s and 1990s, the post of US ambassador to China often went to career diplomats or government officials, including Winston Lord, James Lilley and J. Stapleton Roy. More recently, presidents have picked elected officials from states with strong trade ties to China. Branstad, former governor of Iowa, fitted this mould, as did Gary Locke of Washington and Max Baucus of Montana.

The US ambassador to China, Terry Branstad, and his wife, Christine, at the ambassador’s residence in Beijing in 2017. Branstad left the post in October 2020. Photo: AFP

The rumours circulating about possible Biden appointees to Beijing are surprising as most represent a break from tradition. In December, there were suggestions that Biden was considering one-time presidential hopeful Pete Buttigieg for the role, though he was subsequently named Secretary of Transportation. Other rumours centred on former Disney CEO Robert Iger and former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel.

Some have advocated that Biden make a statement by choosing an ambassador from a minority background. This month, Biden announced his nomination of Chantale Wong for US director of the Asian Development Bank, an ambassador-level post. If confirmed, she will be the first LGBTQ person of colour with the rank of ambassador.

Biden’s choice for ambassador to China could be similarly historic. All previous US ambassadors to China have been white men, with the exception of Locke, who is Chinese-American.

Writing for Foreign Policy in January, Bryce C. Barros encouraged Biden to nominate a black ambassador. I would recommend the president go one step further and name a black woman to the post, as it would be a clear representation that the Biden administration not only values diversity but also is not returning to business as usual with China.

While Biden has yet to officially announce his pick, most analysts believe that it will be career diplomat Nicholas Burns. He would bring more diplomatic experience to the role than his predecessors have in decades. He has held high-level posts, including as under secretary of state for political affairs, ambassador to Nato, ambassador to Greece, and as State Department spokesperson.

Former US ambassador to Nato Nicholas Burns testifies during a US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence hearing on June 28, 2017. Burns is tipped to be the next US ambassador to China. Photo: AFP

Appointing Burns to Beijing could simultaneously demonstrate a return to diplomacy in the relationship while also solidifying Biden’s agenda of confronting the challenges posed by China from a multilateral perspective, considering Burns’ experience with the transatlantic security alliance and Europe.

On the Chinese side, ambassadors are typically chosen from a narrower pool. Throughout my career I met every Chinese ambassador to the US during that period. Chinese envoys to the US were among the most qualified and capable diplomats of the twentieth century. Many had studied in the US, such as Hu Shih, Wellington Koo and Hollington Tong.

Many Chinese diplomats today are graduates of Chinese language schools. Cui comes from such a background, though he also studied at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington.

Why Biden is taking his time with America’s China policy

That the relationship between the US and China deteriorated so dramatically during Cui’s tenure is not his fault, but I believe he could have done more to ease tensions and maintain high-level contact between Washington and Beijing, especially after the pandemic began.

Though his options are more limited than Biden’s, Xi does have a critical choice to make in appointing the new Chinese ambassador. Many Chinese diplomats over the past 18 months have come to espouse “wolf warrior” diplomacy, named after two ultranationalist Chinese films. The wolf warriors have made headlines around the world for criticising Western governments and vigorously defending China against any criticism or perceived slight.

The wolf warriors scattered across the globe may be useful to Xi, but they will not help him establish better ties with the Biden White House.

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In recent weeks, Xi has sent mixed messages about whether he seeks to restrain or encourage the wolf warriors. In June, Xi seemingly discouraged wolf warrior diplomacy as he encouraged a more “lovable” national image. Yet, marking the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party on July 1, he warned that foreign bullies would have “their heads cracked and bleeding”.

The rumoured replacement for Cui suggests wolf warrior diplomacy may be here to stay. Xi is expected to name Qin Gang, his former chief protocol officer, as ambassador. While The Wall Street Journal describes Qin as a “measured career diplomat rather than a high-wattage warrior”, it bears noting that during two stints as foreign ministry spokesman between 2006 and 2014, Qin acquired a reputation for what would now be described as wolf-warrior rhetoric.

Ambassadors have been relied upon in the past to navigate difficult times in the bilateral relationship: for example, US ambassador Joseph Prueher played an important role after a US Navy plane collided with a Chinese jet in 2001.

Considering the state of relations today – the disagreements over trade, human rights and the pandemic – it is not a question of if but when Biden and Xi will have to lean heavily on their chosen ambassadors. Hopefully the leaders will choose ambassadors who can help steady the relationship.

Chi Wang, a former head of the Chinese section of the US Library of Congress, is president of the US-China Policy Foundation