‘Global’ Britain’s pretensions of relevance in Asia pale amid China’s rise
- The problem with Britain’s desire to be ‘deeply engaged’ in Asia is that it fails to acknowledge just how much its influence has declined
- Across every metric – whether political, economic, financial or social – the UK is now nothing more than a minor player in the region
The argument is that the UK, now free of the shackles of the EU’s inward-looking nature and centralised foreign policy, can return to its old tendencies, revitalise long-neglected relationships and pivot to new wealth-generating opportunities.
As such, it intends to contribute to Asia’s security, strengthen relationships with strategic partners and play a bigger role in trade.
The problem with this narrative is that it does not acknowledge just how much the UK’s influence across Asia has declined. It is true that this trend is not specific to Britain as China’s growth and Asia’s regionalisation have resulted in the large-scale displacement of more distant external powers.
But across every metric – whether political, economic, financial or social – the UK is now nothing more than a minor player within the region. This is seen in its waning importance as a trade partner.
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If China – which accounts for more than 40 per cent of the UK’s total Asian trade – is excluded, just 1.6 per cent of the region’s flows now involve Britain. For Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and Taiwan, its share is less than 1 per cent.
Even for trade in services, in which the UK remains internationally competitive, it has become less relevant as the region tilts towards China. It might still have a role as a provider of business and education services, but in the context of Asia, these will be relatively small.
The UK is also losing financial influence. Its share of international bank lending to Asian countries has fallen from 17 per cent in 2010 to 11 per cent today, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
This is not just a relative decline – in markets including India, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea, British banks have reduced their lending exposure in the past decade.
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Neither is it clear what Britain offers in military terms. It might want to contribute to Asia’s security, but its capabilities are but a fraction of what they once were after years of cutbacks.
Asian countries looking to the UK to contribute to their security, including its long-standing Five Power Defence Arrangement partners, are almost certainly overestimating its capabilities.
Once again, the UK is not alone in this loss of Asian influence. All the European powers have been gradually displaced, first as the result of US hegemony and more recently by China’s rise. Asia has changed dramatically since the last substantive British presence – Hong Kong – was returned to China.
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The UK’s pretensions that it can reverse history and regain some of its former relevance are misplaced, particularly given its diminished stature. The respective balances of power have now been reversed, with the UK needing Asia much more than Asia needs the UK.
This is demonstrated by asymmetric trade flows. While Britain is a minor trading partner for Asia, the region accounts for nearly a quarter and a fifth of its merchandise imports and exports, respectively.
This trend means other external partners, apart from the United States, are increasingly irrelevant. As such, despite the UK’s aspirations to be “deeply engaged” in the region, it will be a marginal player with a limited role. To suggest otherwise is to deny the geopolitical and geoeconomic reality of the Asia-centric new world order.
William Bratton is author of “China’s Rise, Asia’s Decline”. He was previously head of equity research, Asia-Pacific, at HSBC