Amid Covid-19 vaccine death rumours and blood clot fears, is anyone still following the science?

From avoiding vaccines to halting drives, people and governments who claim to be following the science are jumping to conclusions despite a lack of evidence

Philip Bowring

Published: 9:45am, 21 Mar 2021

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Post hoc ergo propter hoc means if x follows y, then y must be the cause of x. This Latin phrase was drilled into me at the age of 15 as one of the world’s most common and dangerous fallacies. But it seems many people never learn, including those who proclaim themselves to, and demand that others, “follow the science”.

It is not, of course, surprising that popular media in search of readers easily stirred into anxiety will headline the fact that a few people in Hong Kong have died after taking the Sinovac vaccine. As a result, vaccination bookings fell. But it is truly shocking when governments in countries with excellent health data and knowledge of both viruses and vaccines fall into the same trap.

Germany is perhaps the most shocking example. The fabled land of vorsprung durch technik, or advance through technology, stopped distributing the AstraZeneca vaccine on the basis of a rumour, unsupported by data, that it can cause blood clots. Don’t wait for the science, just follow the headlines on Twitter or Bild Zeitung.

Other supposedly advanced European countries did the same in the face of zero evidence – notably from Britain which has a very high vaccination rate, from AstraZeneca or from the World Health Organization. Even though EU countries have now said they will resume use, such actions inevitably raise the suspicions of the many who already doubted the wisdom of accepting the vaccine.

Scepticism is high in much of Europe, as in Hong Kong and on the Chinese mainland. Of course, people should have choices. Given the opportunity, I chose the BioNTech vaccine over the Sinovac one based on the available data. But it should be clear enough that, for the vast majority, a Sinovac vaccine is better than no vaccine at all. The best is the enemy of the good.

00:46

AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine under investigation by WHO over blood clot reports

Science is also absent in many of the decisions made by the Hong Kong government. Cumulatively, they raise questions about vaccination itself as well as official motivations.

Why, for example, the need for a three-week quarantine on arrival, longer than anywhere in the world including those champion Covid-19 fighters New Zealand and Taiwan? And why complete bans on entry from Britain, Brazil and South Africa?

It seems to be because the bureaucrats have identified these countries as the source of Covid-19 variants, yet those variants are now found in many countries. Then we have the absurd closure of outdoor sports facilities such as beaches and open pools, while enclosed gyms are open.

As for those people not getting vaccinated, incentives may work. How about the ability to travel after two shots plus tests before and after return without quarantine?

01:22

Thai prime minister gets AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine after safety scare

There are many dangers in vilifying some vaccines. In the Philippines, a politically driven campaign against the widely approved (since 2015) and used anti-dengue vaccine Dengvaxia saw unsubstantiated claims that the drug, made by Sanofi Pasteur, had caused deaths. Needless to say, vaccination rates plummeted, not only for dengue but others, notably measles.

Come Covid-19 and it is no surprise that the Philippines lags months behind its Asian neighbours in securing significant supplies of any vaccine.

The post hoc Latin fallacy has been bedevilling the world since the Covid-19 pandemic began. An obsession with the number of deaths continues despite, in most cases, simple questions going unanswered: did X die primarily from Covid-19; was Covid-19 a secondary but contributory factor, or; was it only a coincidence between death and the Covid-19 infection?

With the onset of Covid-19, the Philippines reported that deaths from pneumonia last year fell by 48 per cent from 2019, partly because of increased vaccination against it, while deaths from lower respiratory diseases fell by over 26 per cent. Meanwhile, deaths from other causes such as heart disease and diabetes rose.

04:13

Philippines starts long-delayed Covid-19 vaccination programme using free Chinese Sinovac jabs

Of course, in the United States and much of Europe, total deaths have risen markedly, but this shows the need for granular data more than headline totals. Precision is essential in better understanding causes and vulnerabilities.

In other words, there is a need for much more application of that much-criticised word: “discrimination”. For a start, it would be useful to discriminate between different peoples from a huge continent.

Chinese people may often define themselves as Asian when it suits them, but maybe not if it means being put in a bracket with Pakistanis or Indonesians. In Hong Kong, little is said about the ethnic minorities who suffer institutionalised second-class status and who have scant legal protection from racist speech and practices.

04:06

Hong Kong’s ethnic minority groups struggle as city battles Covid-19 and recession

In the West, thanks to the recent claims by Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, there is a claimed “anti-discrimination” objection to talking about the skin colour or other attributes of mixed-race unions.

As a white European with a Chinese wife and children, to me it would be incredible if friends and relatives did not sometimes talk about whether our children looked more European or Chinese, or in the case of black-white unions, how brown their children were or would be. Don’t all children get discussed in terms of looking more or less like mum or dad?

Black Lives Matter is a necessary movement in the US but, elsewhere, it may be in danger of being cheapened by the efforts of C-grade celebrities and D-grade politicians trying to grasp at its coattails. Please, readers, discriminate. Separate fact from fiction, cause from effect.

Philip Bowring is a Hong Kong-based journalist and commentator