After a dreadful year, three wishes for Hong Kong in 2021

So-called friends of Hong Kong, like US Senator Ted Cruz, should stop ‘helping’ us. Young idealistic proponents of political reform need to be less naive. And, with society still deeply divided, all parties should work towards reconciliation

Mike Rowse

Published: 3:45pm, 27 Dec 2020

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In the words of an old Scottish proverb, “If wishes were horses, beggars would ride”. 2020 has been such a dreadful year for so many people, it is tempting to think that only an infinite number of wishes could put everything right for Hong Kong in 2021. But to stay focused for the purposes of this column, I am going to limit myself to three.

I will not waste one on a cure for Covid-19, because there is no need; there are so many vaccines now at an advanced stage of trial.

Nor will I waste time hoping for an early and significant economic recovery. Although, in business terms, we punch well above our weight, Hong Kong represents only a tiny share of global gross domestic product.

What happens to us depends to a very large extent on what happens elsewhere: whether the US returns to a reasoned set of policies after the four-year binge on voodoo economics, and; whether China can turn its rebound into a sustained era of growth. In the long term, there are grounds for optimism on both counts but I fear the timescale will be disappointing.

My first wish for Hong Kong in the new year is that our many “friends” around the world will stop “helping” us. We do not need US senators flying in, dressing in black, and showing support for rioters. A legitimate and mostly orderly protest movement was morphing into an orgy of violence and vandalism. Lending support was not helpful.

Similarly, a secretary of state calling for regime change in Beijing while at the same time loudly shouting his support for democratic reform in Hong Kong only increased distrust and virtually guaranteed zero progress for a long time.

07:26

Hong Kong protester rejected for asylum by US consulate is teen who was shot by police in 2019

Introducing sanctions against individual Hong Kong officials has had a devastating and contrary effect. Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor has been very unpopular locally because of her handling of the extradition saga. Nor was she highly regarded by officials in Beijing who at one point seemed on the verge of ushering her out.

But with her being singled out for harsh treatment, even critics would have a modicum of sympathy and Beijing could not abandon her without losing face. If the top position is going to be automatically encumbered with sanctions, who would want it? The perverse effect could be that she might cling on for a second term for want of an alternative.

My second wish is for our young, idealistic proponents of reform to become less naive. I agree with much of their agenda – meaningful political reform, an accountable police force, a more equitable society – but to start from the position that Hong Kong was not part of China, or at least had the option of independence in future, doomed their other ideas to failure despite their merits.

They have craved support from the United States, only to be betrayed at the last minute by Senator Ted Cruz, who blocked legislation that would have made immigration easier for dissidents. They have welcomed support from Britain, with its promises of a path to citizenship, without realising that their parents and grandparents had already enjoyed full right of abode there until it was stripped from them by purposeful changes to the British nationality law in the 1980s.

And what are we to make of the recent call by Sixtus Baggio Leung for the US to hit China by breaking the Hong Kong dollar’s peg to the US currency? Wound China by killing Hong Kong? How would destroying the jobs and livelihoods of ordinary Hongkongers advance the cause of democracy?

My third wish is for all parties to launch a serious effort at reconciliation. The schisms in our society are deep and enduring. The wide-scale street protests may have ended, curbed by a combination of the national security law and the social distancing measures introduced to fight the pandemic. But the underlying causes of the unrest have not been addressed.

The latest call for a commission for reconciliation to be established came from retiring Baptist University president Roland Chin Tai-hong. Many of his students were arrested during the protests last year and the campus was occupied for a time. In a recent interview with the Post, Chin said he had been saddened by the events. Nearly one year later, there are still no conversations to bridge the rifts in society.

Several other parties have recognised the need for such a commission and foreigners with experience of truth and reconciliation exercises in other places have spoken here of how things were handled in post-apartheid South Africa and in Northern Ireland after the troubles.

Lam herself spoke of the need for such an effort as long ago as September last year, when she admitted the restoration of harmony would be a “long road”. It certainly will be, and she would be the worst person to lead the way. Someone who said only recently she had done nothing wrong – not a widely held view – could hardly be tasked to spearhead the search for truth.

A judge would, in normal circumstances, be a good choice, but may take us too close to a commission of inquiry for the comfort of some. How about a panel of three led by a senior member of the bar – Wong Yan-lung anyone? A retired vice-chancellor, bearing in mind the number of students involved in the protests (Joseph Sung Jao-yiu?) And a neutral politician? Finally a post-retirement job for Donald Tsang Yam-kuen!

Mike Rowse is the CEO of Treloar Enterprises

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: After a dreadful year, three wishes for our city in 2021