How China’s growing power and ambitions are burning the bridges of global cooperation
It isn’t that governments don’t understand China, it is that there’s a growing realisation that Beijing is willing to impose its vision on others. The need for engagement and dialogue has never been greater
In the past few weeks, China’s decades-long relationship with Europe has taken a significant hit as negotiations stalled over investment and human rights issues. Chinese fighter jets have flown dangerously close to Taiwan. And talks with India over their border dispute have reached a stalemate after the deaths of soldiers on both sides.
Add to this the continued trade war with the United States and a clear trend emerges. At no time since China’s reform and opening up that began over four decades ago has its relations with the world been so strained. Beijing has alienated practically every major power in the Asia-Pacific – Japan, Australia and India – as well as most of Western Europe, Canada and the US all at the same time.
China’s growing ambitions are bumping up against its neighbours with increasing frequency, calling into question attempts by Beijing to establish itself as the leader of a new multilateral order. The backlash to this more aggressive approach has begun, and will only increase if Beijing continues down this path. China will increasingly feel more isolated, not by any grand Washington containment strategy, but by its own policies.
Wary nations that until recently have rationalised the costs for access to its booming market, now realise that unless they play by China’s rules, they will be punished economically and politically abroad while their citizens are harassed and physically threatened on the mainland.
Trump and Xi trade barbs over Covid-19 as world leaders voice fears at UN’s 75th General Assembly
Trump and Xi trade barbs over Covid-19 as world leaders voice fears at UN’s 75th General Assembly
On the economic front, China’s market potential, its main leverage that has buffered the government from more opprobrium, has lost much of its lustre. While the after-effects of the Covid-19 outbreak appear to have slightly dented China’s economic growth, the promise of profits simply does not buy as much geopolitical goodwill as it used to, even as many advanced economies face recessions and a disastrous second wave of infections.
European companies eager for business as usual increasingly fear retaliation from the political battles being waged with China. The European Union is holding firm on its calls for more market access to finalise an investment treaty, rather than giving China more time to develop, as has been past practice.
Japan is actively encouraging its companies to relocate away from mainland China. And the crackdown on Hong Kong’s liberties has led foreign companies to re-evaluate their continued presence there. Add a new push by Beijing to bring China’s private sector under more government control and the signal to the international business community is clear – there is no more business as usual.
Geopolitically, China continues to signal that it favours multilateral engagement, except in cases when it does not. Beijing has embarked on a highly unilateral approach to issues including territorial disputes in the Himalayas with India, with its fishing fleets exploiting resources in other countries’ territorial waters far from its shores, ignoring the international ruling on its illegal island-building in the South China Sea.
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Explained: the history of China’s territorial disputes
Explained: the history of China’s territorial disputes
China has grown strong enough to say no to the rest of the world, making the opinions of the UN, the US and the EU no longer as relevant.
Militarily too, China has advanced dramatically. A fighting force seen 20 years ago as ill-equipped and disorganised has grown so large and sophisticated that the 2020 US Defence Department annual report on China said that it “has marshalled the resources, technology, and political will over the past two decades to strengthen and modernise the PLA in nearly every respect. Indeed, as this report shows, China is already ahead of the United States in certain areas”.
The problem isn’t that governments don’t understand China, a common refrain when diplomatic disagreements arose in the past. What countries in the region and around the world have grown to realise is that Beijing not only has a plan for its future, but it is willing to impose that vision on others if they do not comply.
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Hong Kong-based warship joins drill in South China Sea
Hong Kong-based warship joins drill in South China Sea
Australia has recently seen the punitive side of Beijing with trade sanctions levied against it in retaliation for backing an inquiry into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic. China often spoke out against America’s use of sanctions, and voted them down at the UN, only to now implement some of its own for decidedly weaker reasons.
The depths of this disconnect with the rest of the world has been as staggering as China’s dramatic rise. With all great power rivalries, countries will push as far as others let them. Recent actions show there is growing resistance to China throwing its weight around the world like other nations have.
Though the future may often rhyme with the past, it has yet to be written. Decisions will be made by leaders who need to keep an eye on the collective benefits of continued engagement, rather than being in a perpetual war with history.
A shared future of an earth out of balance, an international system ill-equipped to deal with it, and a growing pandemic that does not heed national boundaries call for wiser policies. At a minimum, China and its neighbours must remain committed to keeping the lines of communication open, and opportunities for dialogue in place. The challenges ahead are far greater than the great power conflicts of the past and no nation will be able to face them on its own.
Brian P. Klein, a former US diplomat, is the founder and CEO of Decision Analytics, a New York-based strategic advisory and political risk firm
This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Burning bridges
