Four more years: why America is likely to vote for Donald Trump after all

With America divided and uncertain, expect the president to position himself as the saviour of the US and exploit to great effect Biden’s weaknesses
The Democratic Party’s position of holding the moral high ground, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016, will also enrage many voters

S. George Marano

Published: 1:30am, 29 Aug 2020

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As the US presidential election looms and the battle for the soul of America awaits, this election promises to be like no other. Despite the pandemic, social unrest and four years of unorthodoxy in the White House, the lead-up to November will show President Donald Trump convincing the electorate to give him another four years, even against his litany of failures.

It will be Trump’s exposure of rival Joe Biden’s weaknesses that should sway voters towards a second term for himself.

Deficits in diplomacy and nuance have been the hallmark of Trump’s presidency. In galvanising conservative support while emboldening the progressive movement against him, Trump has increased fissures within US society, making this election all the more divisive.

Like in 2016, a Trump victory is being dismissed, with the news media leading the way. Many political commentators have replaced rational analysis with rancour, failing to heed the 2016 lesson, and predicting a resounding Biden victory. Yet this election is not so much Trump’s to win as Biden’s to lose – and the likelihood of this happening is high.

While the policy platform presented at the Democratic National Convention includes abolition of college tuition for low-income families, global warming initiatives, raising the minimum wage and citizenship for undocumented workers, it has missed out Medicare For All, which was supported by 69 per cent of registered voters in an April poll.

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In this climate, with high jobless rates and health care tied to employment, this is a no-brainer. Against this, Trump is running on the same “America first” platform as in 2016, making himself a small target while positioning attention and scrutiny firmly on the Democratic National Convention.

Trump, as the incumbent, can leverage a buoyant stock market loaded with stimulus, as long as it holds up until November. He can compliment this by championing “Make America Great Again”, positioning himself as the saviour of Main Street. The optics on China, the Nato transatlantic security alliance and other alleged international rent seekers will add value.

The anything-but-Trump mentality is strong, but unseating an incumbent has always been difficult, with only five losing since 1900, the last being George H.W. Bush in 1992 against a much younger and more charismatic Bill Clinton.

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Biden is significantly experienced as a senator and a former vice-president, but lacks the gravitas to convince the US public that he should replace Trump. Even with the addition of Kamala Harris, a calculus to capture black and minority votes, Democratic Party strategists seem to have taken the wrong approach.

The foundation of the Democratic National Convention’s questionable strategy is the selection of Biden against more popular contenders such as Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. It was Sanders who had significant grass-roots support, with the main distinction being his advocacy for universal health care.

In selecting Biden, the Democratic establishment is seeking to maintain the economic status quo over the popular but socialist-lite wealth redistribution policies promoted by Sanders. Yet Sanders attracted huge support among the young, who make up the largest demographic among swing voters.

Still, Trump’s greatest strength is in exposing Biden’s weaknesses. With his great command of social media and direct messaging to Americans, Trump is expected to draw attention to his achievements while amplifying Biden’s shortcomings – which have included momentary incoherence, a hypocritical voting record on war and social security, allegations of plagiarism and untoward behaviour against women, and his son Hunter Biden’s private and business affairs.

While Biden’s skeletons are out in the open, they have not been fully exploited. As for Harris, expect an airing of her dirty laundry, a mainstay of US politics in which validity comes a distant second in the court of public opinion. Defending against any accusations could blur the Democratic positives – including its policy advantages and Harris as vice-president – against Trump’s dismal four years.

Trump can be expected to accelerate his “anything goes”, lowest-common-denominator attacks that cannot be reciprocated by Biden and Harris. The Democratic Party position of holding the moral high ground, as Hillary Clinton did, will be ineffective and interpreted as condescending by some who remain angry about the state of the United States.

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Lastly, Trump’s strongest position going into November’s election is that all his dirty laundry has been aired: Russiagate came and went, and the impeachment attempt failed dismally. Very little is left unexposed.

With Biden’s popularity at its zenith, Trump will begin to draw closer in the polls as we get closer to the election date and, faced with three presidential debates, Biden will be easy pickings. It should be remembered that Hillary Clinton outpolled Trump up until election day.

Although many are already predicting a Biden win, we are living in a time of unprecedented uncertainty. With the US in dire straits both economically and socially, and Biden prone to gaffes, expect Trump to masterfully exploit the holes in the Democratic position.

As campaigning hots up as we approach November 3, expect Trump to position himself as the saviour of the US and swaying voters into giving him another four years.

S. George Marano holds a PhD from the School of Management at RMIT University, Australia, and has an MBA and Master of Commerce from RMIT University

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