Hong Kong elections: opposition must be realistic and not just oppose Beijing

Hong Kong democrats still think in terms of opposition and resistance after 23 years in the minority, something the government has fostered by not sharing power
If they do win a majority, they should provide policy alternatives that would improve the social and economic welfare of the people, not just pick fights

Frank Ching

Published: 6:00am, 22 Jul 2020

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Count Otto von Bismarck, the noted German statesman, is known for saying, “Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable – the art of the next best.” That is to say, aim high but know when to settle.

That seems to be a lesson Hong Kong’s localists haven’t learned yet. Leading strategist and legal scholar Benny Tai Yiu-ting, who aimed high while organising the 2014 Occupy Central campaign but later admitted his civil disobedience campaign did not cause Beijing to make any concessions, doesn’t appear to have learned it either.

The opposition attempt to win a majority of Legislative Council seats in September is not exceptional; it is what opposition parties try to do. Usually, though, the opposition party has a policy programme it wants to implement after it becomes the majority party. This is where the Hong Kong opposition is different.

From 1997 on, the political landscape in Hong Kong has featured the pro-democracy and pro-establishment camps. The government has made no attempt to be inclusive, consult the opposition or share power. The pan-democrats developed a negative mentality, automatically opposing government policy without providing alternative proposals.

This attitude is reflected in the localists’ constant talk of resistance, not of providing good government. That is because, for the last 23 years, the democrats have always been in the minority. The only power they had lay in opposition. The government, by not giving them a role, helped foster this attitude.

02:07

More than 610,000 vote in Hong Kong’s pro-democracy opposition primary elections

Now, the opposition feels it has a chance of becoming the majority party. Even so, it continues to think in terms of resistance and opposition, not of providing leadership.

So, even while planning to be the majority party, it retains the mentality of an opposition party. At the very least, it should be devising policies on housing, health care, education and other issues, not waiting for the government to produce policies for it to criticise.

The opposition’s current plan is simple: vote down the government’s budget, regardless of content. If the budget isn’t approved, the government will have little choice but to hold new elections.

Thus, the top priority of legislators elected in September will be new elections in which they seek to regain their seats. If they succeed, the new legislature will again vote down the budget. Then, according to Article 52 of the Basic Law, the chief executive will have to resign.

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What happens then? That part of the script hasn’t been written yet. Presumably, the Election Committee will convene to choose a new chief executive.

Assuming the committee elects a pro-democracy candidate, someone not acceptable to Beijing, what will happen? Beijing made clear in 2017 that if someone not trusted by the central government was elected, that person would not be appointed chief executive. Appointment of the chief executive, Beijing said, is a substantive power, not a formality.

If the Election Committee chooses a pro-establishment candidate as the new chief executive, what will the opposition do? Will it start all over again, voting down the budget and holding new elections, ad infinitum?

That assumes infinite patience in Beijing which, as we have seen in the case of the national security law, is not the case. In fact, the central government may well act soon to make sure the opposition never gets to its first goal, which is to win a majority of seats.

06:50

Hundreds arrested, thousands protest in Hong Kong during first day under new national security law

What is the end goal of the opposition? They must recognise that Hong Kong is never going to be independent. Realistically, the best objective is what China promised in the Joint Declaration – “a high degree of autonomy”.

What autonomy there is today is clearly less than what existed in 1997. Zhang Xiaoming, deputy director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, said on July 1 that the security law had moved the balance closer to “one country” but that the law did not regard Hong Kong’s opposition camp – the pan-democrats – as an enemy.

A major problem is the division within the opposition between more moderate traditional democrats and the young localists, who seem to only have resistance to Beijing on their agenda. There is a need for a major strategic rethink on the part of the opposition.

If they do win a majority of seats, they should provide policy alternatives that would improve the social and economic welfare of the people. The top priority should be to reform the overall situation in Hong Kong, not repeated cycles of vetos, resignations and elections that lead nowhere.

Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator. [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter: @FrankChing1

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