David Dodwell

Why disruption, not the national security law, is the main force pushing Hongkongers to leave

Most international media will blame the surge in emigration inquiries on the national security law, but while that is natural it is also myopic

People will leave not because of communism or a lack of unfettered democracy, but over never-ending disruption to lives, careers and their children’s future

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Is Hong Kong poised for another mass exodus, following implementation of the national security law? People appear primarily concerned about local political gridlock and lack of economic opportunities than a lack of democracy. Photo: Shutterstock

David Dodwell

Published: 9:30am, 6 Jul 2020Updated: 9:45am, 6 Jul 2020

Last October, the annual Chinese University survey of attitudes towards migration reported a shocking 42.3 per cent of Hong Kong respondents wanted to emigrate – mostly to Canada, Australia or Taiwan. That was up from around 33 per cent the year before. Run this survey today, and who would dare guess what the number would be.

Add the news that the British government, after decades of procrastination and provoked by Beijing’s decision to impose a national security law on Hong Kong, is preparing to offer full British passports to holders of the British National (Overseas) passport, and the potential is high for emigration inquiries to leap off the charts. More than 300,000 Hong Kong people hold BN(O) passports, and about 2.5 million more are thought to be eligible.

Most international media will opt to blame the surge in emigration inquiries on the national security bill. That might be natural, but it would be myopic.

Remember that when Chinese University researchers asked why respondents wanted to emigrate, the largest number (28 per cent) complained not about communism or even the absence of democracy, but that there was “too much political dispute or social cleavage.”

What we are watching in Hong Kong today is not a sudden surge in despair. Rather, it is the cruel, attritional impact of decades of political and economic uncertainty, combined with entrenched and seemingly unresolvable divisions between people pleased to be rejoined with the mainland and those who still hanker for the benign neglect of former colonial rule.

05:50

What you should know about China's new national security law for Hong Kong

I am not just talking about attrition during the past 23 years. Back to the early 1950s flight through Hong Kong of Kuomintang supporters in the wake of Mao Zedong’s communist victory, there has never been a time when the possible need to flee has not been in the minds of many in Hong Kong.