With the new US defence bill, Donald Trump is finally standing up to China in the Indo-Pacific
- Under the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, the US aims to increase its bases in Asia and make them harder for China to target in a missile attack, to show Beijing – and US allies – that America is ‘deeply committed’ to defending its interests in the region
The Donald Trump administration is finally being forced to confront China militarily. Despite often intense anti-China rhetoric over the past three years, the US president has actually done little to deploy forces to the Pacific theatre.
An important addition was included this year: funding for a Pacific Deterrence Initiative, which will “send a strong signal to the Chinese Communist Party that America is deeply committed to defending our interests in the Indo-Pacific”. The bill authorises US$1.4 billion for financial year 2021-22, and a further US$5.5 billion for the next year.
These figures are a pittance in the overall scheme of US defence spending. The defence budget for 2020 stands at US$738 billion, so the Pacific Deterrence Initiative next year is just 0.2 per cent of the overall budget. But the creation of the scheme is an important recognition that the US has a new-found resolve and political unity in its China policy.
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What will the initiative do? Its name reflects its provenance as it mirrors the European Deterrence Initiative created by the Obama administration.
In this sense, much like the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, it was more of a rebalance within Asia than a rebalance to Asia.
The Obama pivot had other goals, such as rebalancing its forces to ensure 60 per cent of its navy was in the Pacific fleet (from 50 per cent previously), although in reality this meant greater deployments in Guam, Hawaii and the US west coast rather than East Asia.
The Pacific Deterrence Initiative has not outlined such lofty goals, although its spirit is to continue to prioritise the Pacific over other regions.
The problem for the US is, as previous administrations have found, that shifting away from other theatres is not always easy.
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Much as the Obama administration faced a resurgent Russia in eastern Europe as it pivoted to Asia, so the Trump administration has invested in the multiplicity of conflicts in the Middle East even as it talked tough on China.
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So, while the Pacific Deterrence Initiative is the first concrete step for the Trump administration towards a more viable deterrence posture against China, it is far from certain that it will be sufficient or able to survive more immediate tactical necessities.
For Washington, demonstrating commitment and resolve will be the key goal of the Pacific Deterrence Initiative to stop the rot in regional alliances despite nearly a decade passing since the “pivot” to Asia. Whether it will be enough in the face of a more powerful, more assertive China will be the key test over the next decade.
Christian Le Miere is a foreign policy adviser and founder of Arcipel, a strategic consultancy