How the coronavirus will humble America and Donald Trump, and strengthen China’s position on the world stage

A few good things will come out of the pandemic. A Democrat may well be the next US president and end the trade war with China, which will be in a better position to bargain, having had a lead in tackling the virus and a head start in economic recovery

Anson Au

Published: 1:00am, 19 Mar 2020

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Covid-19 is sweeping through Europe and the United States is feeling its effects. Domestic and global travel routes have been placed on lockdown, and US President Donald Trump recently decided unilaterally to suspend travel from Europe.

Public gatherings have been curbed, prominent events have been postponed or cancelled, universities around the world have transitioned to online classes, and there has been a shift to remote working spearheaded by organisations such as Google.

These measures have prompted widespread panic about the transmission of the disease, and introduced high volatility into markets around the globe.

But while Covid-19 is having a negative impact on health and the economy, it also has positive implications for politics in the long term, potentially improving US-China relations. Economic and public health research allows us to forecast what Covid-19 means for the upcoming US presidential election and China’s global position in the coming year.

First, Covid-19 will shift the ground for the US election. Public health experts predict that the strained US health care system may well break under pressure from the coronavirus.

US medical professionals and the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention have advised that, barring the onset of serious symptoms, people should avoid hospitals as tests and treatments are in limited supply.

The US has only 2.8 hospital beds per 1,000 people, fewer than the 3.2 in Italy, where Covid-19 has overwhelmed the national health care system and forced the country into lockdown.

What is more, according to annual reports compiled by the American Hospital Association, around 65 per cent of US hospital beds are occupied on average, and the number of available beds has been decreasing. This means the system has little wiggle room to handle a sudden upswing in cases.

As the virus spreads and takes its toll on the American public, polls are likely to see a loss of confidence in Trump, whose laissez-faire approach to health care reform and commitment to privatised health care is likely to aggravate health inequalities and barriers of access.

Simultaneously, there will be greater support for a Democratic candidate, as primary front runners former vice-president Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders continue to push for health care reforms that lower barriers of access, such as expanding Obamacare and introducing universal health care in their respective election platforms.

Moreover, both Democratic candidates appear eager to end the US-China trade war, with Biden possibly willing to forge a new trade deal, like the Trans-Pacific Partnership under former president Barack Obama.

Second, Covid-19 will strengthen China’s position on the global political and economic stage. Economically, China’s markets will bounce back and grow far faster than those of its American and European counterparts. China has a significant lead on tackling the infection and is proving superior in curbing the virus.

Beijing’s authoritarian governance has allowed it to adopt measures of a severity and scale that Western countries cannot, including building makeshift hospitals within a week, shutting down entire cities such as Wuhan, and offering free coronavirus tests.

In contrast, the US has a heavily privatised health care system with limited resources that do not permit widespread testing, and a large proportion of uninsured people, numbering close to 28 million, a four-year high, according to the US Census Bureau.

In a widely popularised Tweet, US Representative Katie Porter said a full coronavirus test costs “at minimum” US$1,331. This kind of barrier to accessing health care will be the tinderbox for Covid-19 transmission in the US as the massive numbers of uninsured people cannot afford to seek tests and treatment.

The disparity between the ability of the Chinese and American health care systems to respond to Covid-19 reflects directly on to their economic markets.

Market performances over the past month shows the benchmark Shanghai composite index holding steady while the Dow Jones (and the Stoxx Europe 600) have been in free fall, despite talk of a stimulus package, which is now taking shape.

Following on from a negative US Treasury yield curve that suggests a looming recession, these recent market patterns show that Covid-19 is poised to create a significant shock for an already precarious American economy built on household and corporate debt. This will better equip China to forge new trade deals with the US and other Western nations, ushering in much-needed economic growth.

Amid the latest panic about Covid-19’s disease transmission and the economic uncertainty it has wrought on the West, there are upsides to look out for in the broader, long-term political landscape. Covid-19 is a strain and a test, but it will end.

By the time it does, it will have reshaped US-China relations to favour stronger economic growth in the long term and even improved public health care systems by highlighting their weaknesses in times of stress.

Anson Au is a visiting professor in the School of Humanities, Social Science and Law at Harbin Institute of Technology and a PhD student in sociology at the University of Toronto

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