Asia has gained some perspective on the coronavirus. Europe and the US should too

Western governments should be framing a message of caution, not cancelling events, shutting everything down and feeding panic. If markets collapse, poverty will kill more people than the coronavirus

Joshua M. Zimmerman

Published: 7:00pm, 15 Mar 2020

Why you can trust SCMP

Doctors and epidemiologists insist that we do not yet know much about Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes the Covid-19 disease, which from a scientific standpoint is certainly true. But government leaders and policymakers do not have the luxury of waiting until all the facts can be gathered before making difficult decisions. Like poker players, they must weigh the risks in a game of incomplete information.

But incomplete information is not no information:

We know Covid-19 spreads rapidly, often despite border controls.
But the virus does not appear to spread nearly as rapidly in hot, humid climates. Compare the numbers for Indonesia, Thailand and India (not to mention the almost total absence of Covid-19 in Africa) with those for South Korea and northern Europe. This suggests that as the northern hemisphere warms up over the coming months, the virus’ march may slow down (while the southern hemisphere’s worst days may lie ahead).
It is very clear that the old and the sick are far more likely to need a respirator or die than the young and healthy. That does not mean younger, healthy people will not die – every distribution has a tail.
The mortality rate is likely to go down as more data comes in. The numerator – deaths – is usually pretty solid data. Most deaths are investigated by a pathologist. Meanwhile, the denominator – confirmed cases – is almost certainly massively under-reported because of inadequate testing, asymptomatic patients, self-quarantining and other factors.

Add all this together, and Covid-19 is certainly a very serious threat to global health, but it is not the severe acute respiratory syndrome, it is not the Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers), it is not Ebola, it is not even measles. Yet governments, policymakers, the press and markets are treating it as if it were.

There is a massive mismatch between the actual threat and the perceived threat, which is spawning market turmoil, needless anxiety and hysterical reactions. This is becoming more obvious to those of us in Asia who first confronted this virus more than two months ago and made the mistake of hoarding toilet rolls and rice but have since gained some perspective. We can only pity our friends in the United States and Europe as they panic and stumble.

The number of confirmed cases in the US stands at fewer than 2,000 in a population of 330 million. Even if confirmed cases rise 1,000-fold in the coming weeks before the weather warms, the total number of Covid-19 deaths will be (sorry to be cold-hearted) statistically insignificant. From a mortality standpoint, guns, highway deaths and eating habits should rank as much higher priorities in the US.

What should Western governments be doing? Framing is everything. The message should be: “A new seasonal flu-like disease has been detected. The number of confirmed cases so far is quite small. For most children and adults, the symptoms will be indistinguishable from the common cold. However, certain vulnerable groups, including the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions, should take strict precautions, including social distancing. Everyone should practise good hygiene and wash their hands frequently.” That’s it.

Is that messaging irresponsible? Not if you think there is a decent chance that Covid-19 will spread anyway, despite market-corroding precautions. Not if a broad outbreak would have micro costs from a macro standpoint. And not if medical resources and planning were to be focused like a laser on protecting those vulnerable populations.

If that had been the official response, it is conceivable that the Dow Jones would still be close to 30,000 points, students would be in class and it would be game on for the NBA, or National Basketball Association. Instead, Italy is widely praised for locking down its industrial north, a move sure to lop a chunk off its gross domestic product. The consensus response in the West seems to be that the only way to stop this epidemic is to sacrifice both global supply and demand.

The horror stories emerging from Italy about a lack of respirators, like the horror stories that emerged from Wuhan a month ago, do not mean the solution is to cancel everything, close everything and send everyone home. The solution is to quarantine the elderly and the sick, those most susceptible to Covid-19 and most in need of respirators.

As coronavirus epidemic eases in China, life is slowly returning to normal

Rather than protecting those who do not need protecting, we should encourage the vast majority of the population, people unlikely ever to be ill enough to need a hospital bed, to get on with their lives. The urge to cancel everything risks a market collapse. Market collapses lead to poverty, and poverty is by far the biggest killer of all.

To be fair, the origins of Covid-19 in China made a muted response to the epidemic politically difficult in the West. Legitimate concerns about China’s opacity at the start of the crisis triggered global fears, exacerbated by a whiff of post-trade war Sinophobia. Among Western leaders, only British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has endorsed a broadly risk-weighted, pragmatic response.

China botched the start of this crisis by trying to muzzle the brave Wuhan doctors who first raised the alarm, but its latest policy response is a model for the rest of the world. The outbreak is far from over, but President Xi Jinping has essentially declared victory. Xi visited Wuhan, factories are reopening, migrant workers are on the move and a massive fiscal stimulus package is in the works.

US President Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and German Chancellor Angela Merkel should not deign to comment on the epidemic. They should delegate the task to their third-under-assistant ministers for health policy coordination. The message should go out to nursing homes, hospitals and caretakers.

Money should be appropriated to protect the vulnerable. And as soon as possible, their governments should take a page from Xi, declare victory over Covid-19, pass a stimulus package and move on.

Joshua M. Zimmerman is a former corporate lawyer who has resided in Hong Kong since 1997

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: West needs to get some perspective on virus outbreak

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