China coronavirus outbreak means the world is once again gripped by the six-year pandemic panic syndrome

Every six years, the outbreak of a disease sends the world into a frenzy. But we face much greater daily risks from seasonal flu, being hit by a bus, or being murdered – and the greatest pandemic cost will be economic

David Dodwell

Published: 3:00am, 27 Jan 2020

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As the world wrings its hands over the emergence of a new pandemic threat from Wuhan in China, I am reminded of the last time I addressed the subject – in 2015, during the outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (Mers) – and of my discovery then of what I like to call the six-year pandemic panic syndrome.

Almost six years ago, I was writing about Mers. Six years before that, there was panic over swine flu (H1N1) and, six years earlier, I was observing hysteria over severe acute respiratory syndrome. Six years before Sars, we had graphic photos of mountains of chickens being disposed of in efforts to snuff out avian flu.

I know I should not make light of something as awful as a global pandemic – especially since I only recently stumbled upon, and disposed of, the large stock of Tamiflu pills that I panic-bought in 2003. But it really does take a good pandemic panic to remind us of how badly we judge the life-threatening risks around us.

The new can be dangerous and it is rash to be dismissive of the outbreak too early. We have not even reached the point at which the coronavirus has been given a decent name – 2019-nCoV must surely soon be replaced by something with a ring to it. What about Wuhan Wild Animal Market Syndrome (WWAMS)?

Already, there is both bad and good news. The bad news is that almost certainly in the next 20 years or so, we are likely to be affected by a pandemic that does serious harm to many of us around the world. A true global pandemic is likely to kill millions – maybe hundreds of millions.

For example, the Black Death that raged across Europe between 1346 and 1353 killed an estimated 75 to 200 million people. The good news is that the Wuhan outbreak is probably not “the one”.

We still have much to learn about the latest disease. It is a coronavirus, like Mers and Sars, but we don’t yet know where it came from. Mers seems to have started life in bats and migrated to camels many generations ago. It was first discovered in a human being in 2012 in Saudi Arabia before it went on to generate about 1,200 cases, causing at least 444 deaths.

For H1N1 swine flu in 2009 around 30,000 cases were recorded, of which 12,220 died, according to the WHO. And Sars, which we think came from civet cats, infected about 8,000 people, killing 774, or about one in 10. By contrast, the mortality rate from the Wuhan virus is currently tracking at roughly 3 per cent.

In contrast, the ongoing Ebola epidemic in West Africa has been significantly more alarming: 27,000 cases since 2014 and over 11,000 deaths.

A Congolese health worker checks the temperature of a woman before the launch of a vaccination campaign against the deadly Ebola virus near Mangina village in North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo on August 8, 2018. Photo: Reuters

All these are terrible numbers, but let’s get some perspective as we manage the many risks around us. According to the World Health Organisation, around 3-5 million people become “severely ill” every year as a result of seasonal flu. Of these, between 290,000 and 650,000 people die. Amid this routine annual dreadful mortality, Sars in 2003 was invisible.

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And remember that 1.35 million die every year in traffic accidents, and nearly 500,000 are murdered. Further, the WHO says some 435,000 people died from Malaria in 2017 and 1.6 million from diarrhoea-related causes in the same year.

This reminds me of the global panic about flying in planes – in particular Malaysian Airlines – following the appalling MH17 tragedy over Ukraine. In terms of “per kilometer travelled”, you are much more likely to die on a motorcycle, bike or in a car than on a plane.

Clearly we are appalling at properly assessing risk. For example, nuclear power has become a dirty word because of hyper-emotional responses to tragedies like the ones on Three Mile Island in 1979. People worried about radioactive exposure from Three Mile Island without recognising that average exposure was less than a dental x-ray.

At the same time, we continue to build coal-fired plants that are inflicting much greater harm to our health and contributing significantly to global warming by pumping huge amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

When I look back at Sars, I recall that the outbreak inflicted much economic misery: passenger numbers through Hong Kong airport fell by more than 17 per cent. As retail business tumbled, shops offered steep price cuts. It is estimated that during the five months of Sars, US$40 billion was lost worldwide as flights were cancelled, schools shut, people stayed home and panic gripped financial markets.

A father and daughter kiss each other goodbye through their face masks at Chek Lap Kok Airport in April 2013. Photo: Oliver Tsang

A World Bank study published at the end of 2008 predicted that a mild pandemic would strip around US$330 billion from the world economy, with a more severe development costing US$3 trillion, cutting global gross domestic product by 5 per cent.

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After the Chinese government shut down Wuhan and other large Chinese cities, one can only guess at the massive economic cost being inflicted.

What we need is not panicked responses to a passing flu that will disappear unnoticed into this year’s mortality data, but practical measures to nurse our economies and businesses through the upheavals the pandemic generates.

So we should remember as we don face masks that we face much greater daily risks from seasonal flu, being hit by a bus, or being murdered – and the greatest pandemic cost will be economic, due to our irrational six-year pandemic panic syndrome.

David Dodwell researches and writes about global, regional and Hong Kong challenges from a Hong Kong point of view

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