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Women show smartphone screens with the name of Japan’s new era, “Reiwa”, in Osaka on April 1, following its announcement by the government earlier in the day. Photo: Kyodo
Opinion
Outside In
by David Dodwell
Outside In
by David Dodwell

Does Japan’s Reiwa era promise a new economic dawn even as China rises?

  • The Heisei era under Emperor Akihito was blighted by decades of economic stagnation. As the country enters the Reiwa era under Naruhito, there are encouraging signs that Japan has found a new regional role
On May 1, Japan will restart its clock, drawing the curtain on the Heisei era of Emperor Akihito and waking to a new – and hopefully brighter – Reiwa era of 59-year-old Emperor Naruhito. 
For many Japanese, this is perhaps not a moment too soon. For a couple of years, Japan’s economists have been talking up the “true dawn” unfolding in the country, as they try to put behind them the disaster, drift and global decline of three decades of Heisei.
Most of their tentative optimism has arisen from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his “Abenomics”, as later this year he is expected to become Japan’s longest-serving prime minister. But on May 1, there will be many drawing new hope from Reiwa, as Naruhito ascends to become Japan’s 126th emperor in what is the world’s longest-serving monarchy – Britain’s Windsors have a few centuries to go yet.

It all starts with the meticulous choice of the name, Reiwa, generally translated as “beautiful or auspicious harmony”. Behind the blandness of a phrase, there are radical hints. There have been 247 era names since the practice originated in 645AD, and this is the very first time “rei” has been used. For the conservative Japanese, this is a big deal.

An even bigger deal, and undoubtedly a source of huge patriotic pride, is the fact that Reiwa is the first era name not to be drawn from Chinese literature, but instead from Japanese literature – from the Manyoshu collection of poems written more than 13 centuries ago.

Shinzo Abe, a fierce patriot, called Reiwa “a truly refreshing name that opens the door to a bright era”. But this is perhaps where the radical connotations end, because the careful selection of the new era name reminds everyone of the proud conservatism of Japan, at once one of its greatest strengths and also harbouring the potential to be a deep weakness.

Recent imperial-era names have burdened Japan with challenging memories. From a high point at the end of the four-decade Meiji era in 1912, we have the 14-year Taisho era that saw the descent from liberalism to populism and militarism.

The 63-year Showa era of Emperor Hirohito saw the rush to rebuild, the awful militarism leading to the second world war and the ignominious defeat that followed, and the subsequent rebuilding towards “Japan as No 1” which came to grief in the 1989 crash.

Emperor Akihito’s Heisei has been blighted by that crash and the two-decade economic stagnation that followed, with corruption scandals around the keiretsu, or giant clusters of companies that dominate Japanese business life, awful disasters like the 1995 Kobe earthquake that killed over 6,400 people, and the 2011 Fukushima tsunami and nuclear disaster that killed over 15,000 and resulted in damage of more than US$150 billion.
A woman looks at the remnants of her house destroyed by the earthquake and tsunami in Kessenuma town in Miyagi prefecture, on March 28, 2011. Photo: Reuters
Perhaps most challenging of all, Japan has seen the ascent of China and a perceptible sense of Japan’s declining global importance as the population has aged and shrunk. From 127 million today, Japan is forecast to shrink to 100 million around 2050. It may not quite be the “oldest” economy in the world (Hong Kong boasts that honour, with an average life expectancy of 84.2), but it is haunted by the reality that from an economy in 1990 where an average six workers supported every retiree, by 2025 the country is forecast to have two workers per retiree.

While Japan’s dynastic family has, like its British counterpart, been stripped of most of its powers, nowadays performing mainly ceremonial roles, the iconic importance of the imperial family remains strong.

Crown Prince Naruhito, who ascends as emperor on May 1 and will be formally enthroned on October 22, has established a refreshingly modernising persona. Degrees in history at Tokyo’s Gakushuin University were followed by two years in the 1980s at Merton College Oxford, where he specialised in transport history. He may not quite have become a man of the people, but certainly had his eyes opened to the world. He was impressed by the relaxed ways of the British royal family, and quite shocked that the Queen poured her own tea and served the sandwiches.

But if the Reiwa era is going to carry Japan into the 21st century, and help the Abe government lift the country out of the zombie years, then more may be expected than serving his own sandwiches.

Japan’s Crown Princess Masako, Crown Prince Naruhito, Emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko, greet well-wishers as they appear on the balcony of the Imperial Palace to mark the emperor’s 85th birthday in Tokyo on December 23. Photo: AP

Over the past year, my visits to Japan have revealed encouraging stirrings, and they are not just linked with hosting the Rugby World Cup this summer and the Olympics next year.

Donald Trump’s withdrawal of the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership provided Japan with an opportunity to step forward and define for itself a regional leadership role in the newly-minted Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. For a country intimidated by the rise of nearby China, this has provided a new sense of regional purpose.
Instead of being petulantly intimidated by China’s Belt and Road infrastructure-building programme, the country’s leading companies have looked inward, and built on their traditional strengths of meticulous quality and safety to define a new “Quality Japan” brand, characterised by engineering precision and the minimalist Japanese style. They are saying: “If you want true quality railways, roads, ports and bridges, then rely on Japan. If you are OK with cheap and cheerful, you are free to turn elsewhere.”
As the reality of the country’s demographic crisis sinks in, Japan has for the first time begun to import labour, in particular for elderly care. At last, Japanese women are getting encouragement to develop careers. Baby steps are being taken to rein in the crippling cost of pensions and non-means-tested medical care, which sit at the heart of Japan’s massive and fast-growing debt burden.

Reiwa’s “auspicious harmony” defines a commitment to change, however cautious, and a sense of strength and comfort in the deep traditions of the country – a community that is at ease with itself. As Tama University’s Brad Gosserman recently commented: “Japanese have surveyed the world and decided that they are comfortable with ‘the devil they know’.” Soon the Heisei era will be gone. Long live Reiwa.

David Dodwell researches and writes about global, regional and Hong Kong challenges from a Hong Kong point of view

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Long live a beautiful era
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