Amid China-US rivalry, Asean finds a role model in Duterte’s Philippines

Mark J. Valencia says the Philippine leader, whether intentionally or not, has apparently succeeded in doing what most nations in the region must do – maintain its relations with both Beijing and Washington to its own benefit, but without angering either

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The goal for many nations is to maximise the economic benefit of China’s rise while retaining the benefits of US security protection. But the balancing act required to reach this goal is becoming more like a tightrope walk. Illustration: Craig Stephens

Published: 4:30pm, 2 Apr 2018Updated: 7:49pm, 2 Apr 2018

Speaking as the current chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations at an Asean-Australia summit, Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong warned member countries that they will have to learn to deal with “tensions” and “pressure” from the rise of China.

Many analysts, including myself, have been predicting gloom and doom for Southeast Asian states and Asean unity as they are increasingly pressured by China-US geopolitical competition. Indeed, there is concern that some members may be used as political pawns or proxies in the burgeoning China-US contest for hard and soft power dominance in the region – and in particular in the South China Sea. This could well happen and there is some evidence that the US-China struggle is creating political fissures as Southeast Asian nations waffle and hedge between the two.

However, we may well be underestimating the diplomatic skill and determination of at least some Southeast Asian nations to avoid such a future.

They learned a great deal from the cold-war period when pressure by the Soviet Union and the United States led to a fundamental split between communist Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia on the one hand and the founding members of Asean – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand – on the other.

Indeed, some say that the origin of Asean was stimulated by fear of the “fall” of more states – like dominoes – to the communist movement. Clearly, Asean’s formation favoured the US-backed opposition to that movement. Some even suggest that the US had a great deal to do with its origin.