Under Xi Jinping, a return in China to the dangers of an all-powerful leader
David Shambaugh says Xi has proven himself to be a visionary leader, but by systematically dismantling the institutions and rules set up by Deng Xiaoping to protect the country from the excesses of strongman rule, Xi is setting a dangerous precedent for the future
This now seems entirely likely – unless he unexpectedly succumbs to health problems or is overthrown. Both of these possibilities are unknowable, but stranger things have occurred in Chinese politics in the past (and even during Xi’s tenure) and should not be ruled out.
What are the consequences of this revelation – which was actually anticipated by a number of China watchers – for understanding Chinese politics today and into the future?
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Deng himself did much to build these party and state institutions, which were intended to lodge policymaking firmly in a collective leadership and institutional environment. In this regard, Deng was a true Leninist. But Mao was not, as he deeply distrusted bureaucracy and bureaucrats.
When Deng and others regained control of power after 1978, they set about trying to reconstruct the institutions and procedures that Mao had destroyed. This included Deng’s conclusion that term limits were necessary to constrain absolute power.
While Deng sought to strengthen party rule, he also believed in constraining it and its paramount leader. These Dengist reforms lasted 30 years – until 2012, when Xi came to power.
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Xi dominates the party, he dominates the military, and he has circumscribed the role of the State Council premier to a great extent. He has systematically purged other institutions – such as the Communist Youth League – that could serve as an alternative power base for those seeking to challenge him.
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Xi’s actions and the clear concentration of power in himself reveal a return to the patriarchal mode of strongman politics that was characteristic of the Mao era. While many in China recall the horrors of the Mao era, Xi has many times spoken wistfully of that period. Thus, as China has now fully moved into the 21st century as a global power, internally it has substantially regressed to an antiquated political system of 50 years ago.
This is not necessarily a bad thing – as Xi has articulated a coherent vision for China’s future. But Xi’s wilful overconcentration of power in himself, and his concomitant deconstruction of institutions and procedures that were established to constrain such power and avoid it ever being concentrated in a Chinese leader again, are both a reversal of the past 40 years of policies and a very dangerous precedent for the future.
As Lord Acton pointedly observed in 1887: “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”
David Shambaugh is the Gaston Sigur Professor of Asian Studies, Political Science, and International Affairs at George Washington University, and author of China’s Future