How Article 23 security law could help Hong Kong’s pan-democrats win political reform bargain
Sonny Lo says with the central government pushing for national security legislation in Hong Kong, pan-democrats could use a few bargaining chips to spur democratic development, but acceptance of the August 31, 2014 framework is non-negotiable
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Fifth, a detailed blueprint for bargaining at various stages should be drawn up by all stakeholders, including pan-democrats, the Hong Kong government, central government officials and also the local pro-establishment and pro-business elites. If the Article 23 legislation could be tackled in three stages, then the content of political reform would also have to be divided into three main segments, for a realistic bargaining process.
For instance, if the first stage of Article 23 legislation deals with national security, pan-democrats may consider whether electoral reform for the 2021 Legco should be a bargaining chip, such as the further democratisation of functional constituencies and an increase in directly elected seats.
The timing of the first stage of negotiations would have to be such that legislative reform and the issue of national security are tackled smoothly.
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In the second stage, the issue of state secrets could be discussed in exchange for, say, the need for public participation in nominating chief executive candidates for the 2022 election. From 2013 to 2015, pan-democrats argued for the civic nomination of candidates, against the elite-led model preferred by the central government.
The final stage might see the pan-democrats bargain for a lower threshold of votes from the Election Committee in selecting two to three candidates for the 2022 chief executive election, in exchange for Article 23 content that would tackle links with foreign organisations.
Sonny Lo is a professor of politics at HKU SPACE