With Trump, Brexit and simmering tension in Asia, can the global security order survive 2017?

Hagai M. Segal says with geopolitical crises threatening many parts of the world, those still reeling from a painful 2016 should brace for potentially worse

Reading Time:3 minutes

Photos of victims and floral tributes are left at the scene of the New Year’s Day terrorist attack at a nightclub in Istanbul. Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack that killed 39 people. Photo: AP

Published: 10:15am, 6 Jan 2017Updated: 12:40pm, 9 Jan 2017

In 1815, as the Napoleonic wars that had ravaged the continent came to an end, Europe’s great powers fashioned a new political order to establish and maintain peace. This order collapsed a century later, with humanity consumed by the devastation of the first world war. Another century on and the world is again teetering on the edge of the geopolitical abyss.

Many commentators have characterised 2016 as an annus horribilis, but it is in 2017 when we will see whether the geopolitical nightmare scenarios come to fruition. And we will find out whether the political consensus that has defined the global political and ethical norms since 1945 will be renewed or ruined.

Five challenges for true global leaders in 2017

The United Nations, formed after the second world war, was designed to be a truly global institution developing cooperation to prevent hostilities. Yet in 2017, we have politicians globally, including the incoming US president, celebrating their desire to challenge, if not dismantle, this system and status quo. The politics of international cooperation and human rights is out, replaced with a return to the doctrine of “our national interest trumps all other considerations”.

This change has been driven by, and itself now drives, the increasingly volatile global geopolitical landscape, and the litany of geopolitical hot spots today should alarm even the most hardened political observers. From Europe to Africa to Asia, grand crises loom.

Dutch politician and founder of the nationalist Party for Freedom (PVV) Geert Wilders speaks to reporters at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, in July last year. The PVV is ahead in the polls for the Netherlands’ general election in March. Photo: Reuters

‘Le Pen risk’ takes centre stage as election fever grips Europe

In Europe, Britain will formally initiate the process of Brexit, and the Dutch and the French will go to the polls. While in France a win by Marine Le Pen in the presidential elections in May looks an outside bet, in the Netherlands Geert Wilders’ PVV is ahead in the polls for the March general election. Both have become synonymous with anti-Islamic and anti-immigration rhetoric, and would remove their countries from the EU too. They hope to replicate the popular backlash that in 2016 brought the resignation of the Italian prime minister and nearly resulted in a far-right candidate winning the Austrian presidency.