Patrick Mendis says the new president will soon realise that an America-first agenda won’t work without a global supply chain – and China will figure in the deals he needs to strike
Ignoring China is a mistake. The Sino-US relationship has been mutually beneficial. Illustration: Craig Stephens
Unpredictability is the new governing principle in the United States, and not only in domestic policies. President-elect Donald Trump’s often changing foreign policy positions and unorthodox diplomatic exchanges have made the traditionally reliable US an unpredictable partner in global affairs, especially in the Indo-Pacific region.
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Unpredictability may well be the new normal as “the indispensable nation” appears to be isolating itself from international trade relations. Trump has vowed to terminate the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on his first day in the White House. He has, however, been conspicuously silent on his other campaign promise to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta). Nonetheless, he has been clear about his intention to renegotiate the treaty with Mexico and Canada.
By ending the TPP trade pact, China would happily expand its domain of influence in the Pacific Rim while other American allies and friends inevitably look for a more reliable partner in the neighbourhood. As these geopolitical realities set in, will his campaign promises to “Make America Great Again” eventually default to “Making China Great Again”?
An assertive China is taking note that a “declining” America is giving up on its founding trade vision and empowering it with China’s commercial mission through the “One Belt, One Road” strategy. At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Peru last month, President Xi Jinping (習近平) suggested that China would be open to TPP member nations joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership supported by Beijing, along with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Watch: China eyes Apec trade leadership
Cancelling the colossal 12-nation trade pact and even renegotiating Nafta is no panacea for America’s domestic social decay, racial tensions and economic problems, which are largely attributed to technological advancements, demographic changes, corporate strategies and taxation structures.
