Pan-democrat leaders have utterly failed student protesters
Grenville Cross says senior pan-democrats have been wholly ineffective in offering leadership or advice to student protesters, in particular about the sanctity of the rule of law and the potential consequences of their actions
Politics," said Otto von Bismarck, "is the art of the possible." The assurance by the former chief executive, Tung Chee-hwa, that the central authorities will not use force to remove Occupy protesters, as they have confidence that the police force can handle the situation, is welcome. If Beijing intervened militarily, this could herald the end of "one country, two systems".
In any event, the chances of the current system continuing after 2047, when the Basic Law's promise of "50 years unchanged" concludes, are already uncertain, and they would be greatly diminished by armed intervention. Some people, however, would privately relish this outcome, not least because it would represent a significant policy failure for Beijing, and also make the chances of Taiwan ever returning to the national fold even less likely.
Last June, when the State Council issued its white paper on Hong Kong, it emphasised that the continued practice of "one country, two systems" in Hong Kong required that "we proceed from the fundamental objectives of maintaining China's sovereignty, security and development".
Sovereignty and security are, therefore, the keys. The spectacle, for example, of leading pan-democrats courting prominent politicians in foreign capitals earlier this year will have incensed Beijing. The rawest of nerves will also have been touched by the revelation that huge amounts of cash have been covertly channelled into opposition purses.
Moreover, many of those who are now loudest in their calls for democracy are the very same people who, in 2003, were most vocal in opposing Tung's national security legislation, which is surely no coincidence.
Had Tung's proposals on treason, secession, sedition and subversion against the central government been implemented, there is little doubt that Beijing would, when it announced its plans for the 2017 election last August, have been far more accommodating towards local democratic aspirations, and less insistent on the patriotic credentials of the next chief executive. To that extent, therefore, the pan-democrats have shot themselves (and Hong Kong) in the foot, and their earlier intransigence has now been repaid in kind, although they have since switched tack.