The narrative around Chinese overcapacity sounds similar to that during the global financial crisis when, as a result of its massive stimulus package, China became the world’s largest exporter amid weak demand. Today, China’s green capacity should be viewed within the broader framework of climate change cooperation.
Returning to a supposed Duterte-era deal to preserve peace in the Spratly Islands would be a pragmatic step for the Philippines amid increased militarisation. China should opt for economic investment instead of military assertiveness which only serves to harden negative public opinion among Filipinos.
That Washington can count on its allies in case of a war over Taiwan is a best-case scenario – and more likely, wishful thinking. For Washington, the biggest strategic ambiguity is whether a stronger China will become more confident about peaceful reunification or more impatient and resort to force.