NPC framework offers scope for positive change in 2017 chief executive election
Lawrence Lau and Ayesha Lau say even within Beijing's tight election framework, there's scope to enable candidates from all sides to stand. And requiring the winner to obtain an outright majority would, in effect, give voters a veto
The National People's Congress Standing Committee has sketched out a broad framework for the election of Hong Kong's chief executive by universal suffrage in 2017. Many among us are disappointed that the framework is not more flexible. However, it is still an important step forward. The alternative is to continue the election of our leader by the Election Committee, which no one wants to see happen.
Waiting until 2022 to implement the chief executive election by universal suffrage would not necessarily improve the terms. If we fail to take advantage of the opportunity for 2017, not only would we continue with the existing system, but we would also further delay the introduction of universal suffrage elections for the Legislative Council, to 2024 or beyond.
This is definitely the time for the people of Hong Kong to put aside their differences and work together to make universal suffrage a reality in 2017.
The NPC decision specifies that the size, composition and method of selection of the nominating committee should essentially follow the principles and practices of the existing Election Committee. This means major changes are unlikely to be possible, but marginal changes, such as abolishing corporate voting in some constituencies, probably are.
The easiest way to achieve a consensus is probably to require open endorsement by nominating committee members of nominees for candidacy. Each nominee would have to be endorsed by at least an eighth of all members, similar to the existing Election Committee threshold.
Each member could endorse only one nominee, but would not be required to do so. This means, in theory, it would be possible to have up to eight nominees before the committee, which would then select two to three candidates by democratic procedures. In practice, it would certainly be possible to have more than three nominees, including at least one supported by the pan-democrats.
Voting on the nominees should be conducted by secret ballot. Each nominee would come up for a vote by the entire nominating committee. He or she must obtain more than half the votes of members to become a candidate. However, in the event that more than three nominees receive more than half the votes, the three with the highest number of votes would become candidates.
Under this system, there is no a priori reason why a nominee supported by the pan-democrats could not become one of the candidates, if his or her platform was sufficiently appealing and credible.
The election of the chief executive by universal suffrage, with the candidates selected by nominating committee, will be competitive because the candidates have to compete for the votes of more than five million eligible voters. Recall how competitive the last chief executive election turned out to be within the Election Committee, even though only 1,200 people had a vote. For a voter, even if his or her ideal nominee fails to become a candidate, there would still be the opportunity to vote for someone with a similar ideology and platform.
In the past, a candidate has needed to receive more than half the votes of the Election Committee members to be declared the winner. This is a good principle that should be extended to the election by universal suffrage, so that a candidate must receive a majority of the total votes cast to win the election.
Thus, if there were three candidates and none received more than half the total votes cast, there would be a run-off between the two with the highest number of votes. A run-off election would guard against the possibility of a fringe or extremist candidate being elected under a "first past the post" rule.
A notable exception to the run-off arrangement is the presidential election in Taiwan, which uses the "first past the post" rule. In the 2000 election, Chen Shui-bian won with less than 40 per cent of the total vote. If there had been a run-off election between Chen and James Soong Chu-yu, the candidate with the second-highest vote count, Chen would probably not have been elected. Thus, a run-off should be held if necessary. If nothing else, it would enable the elected chief executive to have a reasonable claim to a mandate from the people.
In a run-off, or an election with only two candidates, if neither attracts more than half the total vote, it would be necessary to start the entire nomination and election process again.
Thus, ultimately, the electorate would still have the power to reject truly unpopular candidates. However, since it is not in anyone's interest to have a "hung" chief executive election, the nominating committee must exercise due care in its selection of candidates to avoid this possibility.
