Macroscope | China-US deal first hesitant step in battle against climate change

The recent agreement between China and the United States on action to combat global warming has changed the face of global climate change politics.

The bilateral deal announced on the margins of the Beijing Apec summit in November last year set the tone for greater progress than might have been expected at last month's inter-governmental meeting in Lima, Peru, aimed at forging a new international agreement on curbing man-made climate change.

The Lima meeting was always going to be a crucial stepping stone towards a treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol, due to expire in 2020. Governments have set themselves a deadline of December this year to complete the new agreement.

The Lima gathering drafted a complete negotiating text for the new agreement. Two major improvements in the current approach are that it commits all countries to action and not just the advanced economies. Also, it requires governments to state their own intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) rather than tying them to a less workable top-down standardised formula.

The Sino-American contribution to progress was to be seen to work together and to pre-announce their INDCs. China's commitment was to stabilise greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and to rely on a minimum of 20 per cent non-fossil fuel power generation by the same date. The US promises to reduce carbon emissions by 26 per cent to 28 per cent from 2005 levels by 2025.

Many commentators doubt that these commitments are sufficient to keep temperature rises below the benchmark of 2 degrees Celsius in excess of pre-industrial levels. Nevertheless, they set the bar higher than it has been and provide an example for others.

Another plus is that China and the US between them account for almost 40 per cent of global greenhouse gases. If the European Union's undertakings are added in, commitments already made cover well over half of carbon emissions, compared to less than 20 per cent under Kyoto.