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PetroChina: rapid EV uptake means oil consumption for transport to peak by next year ‘at the latest’ in China

  • Domestic demand for oil will rise only 1 per cent year on year in 2024 after growing 11 per cent in 2023, state-owned oil and gas producer says
  • Oil consumption will continue to grow in other sectors such as petrochemicals, but will peak before 2030, executive says

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A PetroChina electric vehicle charging station stands next to one of its petrol stations in Beijing on February 2, 2024. Photo: Reuters
Oil consumption in China’s transport sector will peak next year “at the latest” as rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) by mainland drivers pulls the plug on petrol consumption, according to PetroChina, the nation’s largest oil and gas producer.
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Overall domestic demand for oil will rise only 1 per cent year on year in 2024 to 764 million tonnes, compared with 11 per cent year-on-year growth in 2023, according to the state-owned company.

Although oil consumption will continue to grow in other sectors such as petrochemicals, the oil industry has to seek new business models and breakthroughs amid the global clean-energy transition, an executive said on Thursday.

“We believe that China’s oil consumption will reach its peak before 2030 at 780 to 800 million tonnes per year,” said Wu Mouyuan, vice-president at CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute (ETRI), a research arm of state energy giant China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), the parent company of PetroChina.

Electric vehicles made by Denza, a joint venture between Mercedes-Benz Group and BYD Auto, and Chinese EV maker Voyah, are displayed at a shopping mall in Beijing on November 3, 2023. Photo: Reuters
Electric vehicles made by Denza, a joint venture between Mercedes-Benz Group and BYD Auto, and Chinese EV maker Voyah, are displayed at a shopping mall in Beijing on November 3, 2023. Photo: Reuters

“From 2031 to 2050, oil will no longer be consumed as a transportation fuel, but converted into a feedstock for chemical production,” he said in Hong Kong, where the company released a report on oil and gas industry development.

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China’s consumption of oil will continue to decline after 2031, to 200 to 250 million tonnes per year after 2050, as the country strides towards nationwide net-zero carbon emissions by 2060, he estimated.
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