EU investigation into Chinese wind turbine exporters could lead to higher costs, slow down clean energy projects in bloc, analysts say

Curtailing Chinese supplies ‘can only result in European builders being left with options that are more expensive’, The Lantau Group’s David Fishman says
Chinese manufacturers ‘don’t really live off of the EU market’: Trivium China’s Cosimo Ries

Business of climate change

Yujie Xue

Published: 6:20pm, 10 Apr 2024

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An investigation into subsidies received by Chinese wind turbine manufacturers by the European Union (EU) could saddle the bloc’s renewable project developers with high costs and slow down their decarbonisation efforts, while the impact on Chinese firms could be limited, analysts said.

“Since the basis of the complaint is that the Chinese manufacturers are offering turbines that are too cheap, and with overly attractive financing terms, removing that option can only result in European builders being left with options that are more expensive, and with less attractive financing terms,” David Fishman, a manager at power sector consultancy The Lantau Group, told the Post on Wednesday.

Fishman’s comments followed an announcement by EU Commissioner Margrethe Vestager on Tuesday that a new investigation would be opened into the state subsidies received by Chinese suppliers of wind turbines. The investigation will initially cover “the conditions for the development of wind parks in Spain, Greece, France, Romania and Bulgaria”.

This is the third China-facing investigation initiated by the bloc under its new Foreign Subsidies Regulation, a tool adopted last year. The previous two investigations targeted a Chinese train maker and solar panel manufacturers on suspicions that they are using state subsidies to undercut competitors in public procurement contracts.

EU policymakers “had better be very transparent and clear with their constituents that it’s a trade-off they’re comfortable with”, Fishman said.

China, the world’s largest wind power producer, has emerged as a major exporter of wind turbines in recent years, as global demand for clean power surges and its home market faces overcapacity in the clean energy sector.

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Like solar panels, electric vehicles (EVs) and lithium-ion batteries, China saw robust growth in exports of wind turbines last year. According to data from China’s National Energy Administration, the country exported wind turbines worth more than US$33.4 billion to more than 200 countries and regions in 2023.

Wind turbines produced by Chinese companies are 20 per cent cheaper than those manufactured by competitors in the United States and Europe, according to BloombergNEF.

The investigation announced on Tuesday is still at a preliminary stage. Although further tariffs on Chinese wind turbine imports to the EU are possible, the investigation’s impact on Chinese wind turbine makers will be limited, Cosimo Ries, an energy analyst at think thank Trivium China, told the Post.

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“The EU market is obviously by far the biggest outside China, so it would be a significant loss,” he said. “But at the same time, these manufacturers don’t really live off of the EU market. So it’s basically just an opportunity cost that’s lost.

“At the same time, there are many big markets across the Global South that are starting to emerge.”

Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia and Latin America will still be sizeable markets for Chinese wind turbine makers, where they have a clear advantage over European competitors due to low costs, Ries said.

Following Vestager’s announcement, shares of major Chinese wind turbine manufacturers fell on Wednesday. Shanghai-listed Ming Yang Smart Energy Group dropped by as much as 4 per cent and Hong Kong-listed Goldwind Science & Technology, China’s top wind equipment maker, dropped by as much as 2 per cent.