Police come to the aid of the protesters
Hong Kong's "umbrella revolution" was unwittingly aided by the police when they stood down yesterday morning.
Hong Kong's "umbrella revolution" was unwittingly aided by the police when they stood down yesterday morning, presumably to avoid further exacerbating what had become a tense situation overnight.
However, when they departed they obligingly left about 1,000 mills barriers in Central near the war memorial. These were duly used by the protesters to block roads in and around Central. There are not many big demonstrations where you see protesters going about their business with government-supplied barriers. Meanwhile, the protesters weren't the only ones to feel the sting of the tear gas on Sunday night.
One barrage the police fired off was close to the Hong Kong Club and a large cloud of the stuff wafted into the club. There weren't many members in the club at the time but it brought tears to their eyes.
What are the prospects for a "soft" rather than a "hard" resolution? One thing that is immediately clear is this is not Occupy Central. That has been eclipsed by the student protests. It is tempting to think that if both sides keep their keep their cool this could wind down by the end of the week. Not because the demands of the students have been met but because of protestor fatigue, both on the part of participants and by residents.
So far non-participants have been sympathetic, helped by what many perceive to have been gratuitous use of pepper spray and tear gas but it is unlikely to remain so. The Beijing authorities will not be keen on this dragging on since they worry over how this will be perceived on the mainland. They don't want to see copycat Occupy Shenzhen or Tianjin movements starting up. It is particularly awkward that the National Day holiday is approaching. The fireworks have already been cancelled but if the protesters succeed in hijacking the National Day celebration by taking over Bauhinia Square and its environs then that would be a severe embarrassment for the authorities here and in Beijing.
Risk consulting company Steve Vickers & Associates says that while the range of likely outcomes is unclear it believes the demonstrations are likely to escalate, requiring a higher response level to deal with them.
The worst outcome would be if rioting broke out which could eventually lead to a state of emergency being declared together with the deployment of the People's Liberation Army. Steve Vickers & Associates believes this outcome is unlikely. But the firm believes that should the demonstrations escalate then this will probably lead to the arrest of the leaders.
Either way this has been a turning point in Hong Kong politics.
When Occupy Central was first mooted a number of business organisations, including chambers of commerce, publicly declared their opposition. So it was with some surprise that we heard that a couple of advertising agencies agreed to let their staff participate in yesterday's protests.
Spencer Wong, CEO and chief creative officer at McCann Hong Kong, sent a message to staff telling them it was up to them to decide if they would go to work or not. "The company will not blame or punish anyone who supports something more important than work. I bear full responsibility for you all. You have my word."
A similar message went out from the Leo Burnett advertising agency: "Dear All, In view of the current situation, we understand, respect and support your decision if you choose not to come in today. Please inform your team head about the arrangement at your earliest convenience. Remember, please be safe!"
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