Prioritising ‘strategic autonomy’ will let Europe engage with China on its own terms and avoid being held hostage to fluctuations in American leadership. Internal divisions within Europe, budget constraints and geopolitical challenges must be overcome to realise a new path forward.
Trump is likely to escalate hostilities against China and the EU, with higher tariffs and a possible US exit from Nato. To prepare, Beijing and Brussels must start tackling their geopolitical, security and trade differences.
The EU’s latest economic security initiatives will be difficult to implement, messy to roll out and chilling in their effect on trade and investment. Meanwhile, the US will achieve its geopolitical objective of hindering China’s industrial progress.
The recent EU-China summit in Beijing is part of efforts to keep the bilateral relationship from degrading further into conflict and discord. Brussels must adjust its approach to China and focus on addressing actual harms rather than perceived ones that damage its image and legal standing.
China-EU relations stand at a crossroads. This year has brought a revival of bilateral engagement, but the potential for conflict arising from divergent security perspectives is likely to endure, testing the overall relationship.
Risks from China must be put in perspective against tensions in northeast Asia, from Taiwan to the Korean peninsula, and an increasingly isolationist and protectionist US.