While Russia’s attack on Ukraine has sparked fears of Taiwan suffering a similar fate, Beijing has good reason not to do so. China’s global image problem, the need for external stability and a stated goal of peaceful reunification should quash any thought of invading the island.
To understand China’s contentious relations with the US and the wider West, analogies referencing the Cold War and Thucydides trap tell only one side of the story. China’s past suffering at the hands of foreign powers continues to exert great influence on its foreign policy.