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Filling the gaps

Faced with many global economic uncertainties, the government has been urging the community to prepare well for the future.

Let's begin with our demographics. Hong Kong's birth rate keeps on declining - down to 7.49 per 1,000 people in 2011 from 11.13 a decade ago, with the median age rising from 36.7 to 41.7 years. Life expectancy has improved to 82.04 from 79.67 years. It is expected that in 20 years' time, nearly a quarter of our population will be aged 65 or above.

In the coming decades, we face the double challenge of both an ageing and shrinking domestic population, affecting our productivity. Public policy has to respond to the mounting demands for expensive medical services and elderly care, and a long-term retirement protection plan.

Not only that, most of the present 45-64 cohort, who account for 31.3 per cent of the population, were in their prime during Hong Kong's economic miracle in the 1980s and '90s. With high expectations as they enter retirement age, they will form a more assertive 'grey power' force than their predecessors.

We have a more educated population. The proportion of people aged 15 and over with post-secondary education jumped from 16.4 per cent in 2001 to 27.3 per cent in 2011, close to the OECD average of 30 per cent. However, personal income has not caught up with economic growth. Whereas GDP increased by over 30 per cent in the past decade, median monthly income from main employment and median monthly household income remained rather stagnant, at HK$10,000 and HK$18,710 respectively in 2001, and HK$10,000 and HK$17,250 in 2006. These have only recently moved up to HK$11,000 and HK$20,500 in 2011, partly thanks to the new statutory minimum wage.

The weak trickle-down effect in wealth distribution feeds into growing public discontent. As income growth fails to keep pace with rising levels of education, the educated become more disgruntled and alienated, especially the middle class.

In a nutshell, we have an anxious and insecure elderly population, which is growing, as well as an anxious and frustrated young generation, which will influence politics in the coming decade.

Facing up to the global economic challenge, Hong Kong's positioning in terms of industry and human capital must not be confined within the city. As we aspire to be a global city of both China and Asia, the upper end of our working population should become more mobile within the region and world. An inflow of professionals from the mainland and overseas should be encouraged rather than constrained, to boost our knowledge and cultural base. Singapore is more successful in this regard.

Hong Kong is fast becoming a 'national' market in property, investment, consumer goods and medical and education services. The influx of mainland tourists and the surge in mainland demand for goods and services, particularly from the Pearl River Delta region, are helping drive the local economic boom.

The Basic Law promulgated in 1990 sought to preserve the policies and systems of the time, but it failed to anticipate the mainland's economic rise, the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement and the relaxation of rules on individual mainland travellers visiting Hong Kong since 2003.

The controversy over non-resident mainland mothers giving birth in Hong Kong has focused attention on the legal issue regarding the right of abode for their newborn children. But, even without the right of abode, we should still expect Hong Kong to become a preferred choice for mainlanders seeking private maternity services and surgery. Quality attracts demand in every aspect of our open economy.

However, a more congested city is also a hotbed for poor mental health and social and cultural conflicts. Overdependence on mainland demand will also create market distortions and price pressures, which may incur the wrath of the local population if their wages don't catch up. The gain and pain of economic integration have to be properly squared through pragmatic policy interventions.

A proactive population policy is needed to enable a policy rethink on how to ease cross-boundary movements and immigration to address our population gaps and to support our growth targets. The government must factor cross-boundary population trends and demands into its planning for transport infrastructure and public services, and in social and economic development strategies.

Anthony Cheung Bing-leung is an executive councillor and founder of SynergyNet, a policy think tank

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