UN must lay its Burma cards on the table
Today, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon visits Burma in a long-awaited mission to attempt to negotiate a democratic process with the recalcitrant regime.
While his broad agenda, including a meeting with junta leader Senior General Than Shwe and a call for the release of all political prisoners, is apt, the success of Mr Ban's time in Burma will depend on three things: the level of his meetings, his position on Aung San Suu Kyi and his plan for the future.
Failure on any of these fronts will leave Mr Ban with egg on his face and the Burmese generals with an ill-won victory.
On the first count, Mr Ban must meet General Than Shwe. When Mr Ban last met the Machiavellian supremo, in the wake of the devastating cyclone Nargis one year ago, he was given assurances that access for aid workers would be eased. This did not happen.
Should Mr Ban again be used by General Than Shwe in this way, he will lose any real chance the UN might have to influence events in Burma in the current context.
Mr Ban must also meet Ms Suu Kyi. As the undisputed leader of the pro-democracy movement, Ms Suu Kyi represents the only realistic chance for peaceful reconciliation in Burma. Yet, Mr Ban has potentially placed obstacles in front of this objective, too.
He will be arriving in Burma on the day the sham trial of Ms Suu Kyi restarts after a hiatus due to legal arguments and, it must be said, the regime's own political imperatives. The timing, therefore, may be utilised against Mr Ban to ensure he doesn't get a chance to meet the democracy leader.
On the second count, Mr Ban, even if he fails to meet Ms Suu Kyi, must ensure her welfare is uppermost on his agenda.
In failing to specifically include the release of Ms Suu Kyi as a condition of genuine dialogue, the UN Security Council is stepping back from the obvious.
The reason for this is China and, to a lesser extent, Russia. The two veto holders have been the most significant blocks of stronger action on Burma in the past.
China is probably behind this visit by the secretary general and so it may allow Mr Ban to make the connection screaming out to be made.
Should Mr Ban's language be stronger, it may be a sign that China is hardening its stance on Burma.
On the third count, Mr Ban must arrive in Burma with a forward-thinking plan to put on the table. Many governments have been struggling with the fact that existing policies on Burma have not worked.
The Burmese pro-democracy movement has been working to develop a unified democracy plan. This plan includes economic rebuilding, civil-military relations, electoral and constitutional reform, and the role of the military.
It is effectively an exit strategy for the military regime and presents its best chance of withdrawing from the political scene with some sense of involvement. Such a plan should surely be on the table as Mr Ban visits Burma.
James Rose is an adviser with the Burmese pro-democracy movement
