Thai junta braces for a rough ride
Public approval, albeit weak, of the new Thai constitution may turn out to be the high point of the junta's rule that will end with a general election on December 23.
That is if the regime lasts that long. Since last month's referendum, warnings have come, from Defence Minister Boonrawd Somtas among others, of a counter-coup sometime this month. Junta leader Sondhi Boonyaratkalin has dismissed such warnings.
He is probably right to do so. But the fact that the defence chief should ring alarm bells is disconcerting. Moreover, talk of a possible putsch is driven by the delicate matter of who will succeed General Sondhi, when he retires as army commander-in-chief at the annual military reshuffle later this month. He will remain head of the junta.
Disappointment at missing out on the top job is sometimes reason enough for generals to launch coups. Some observers think the looming reshuffle was a factor in the coup last September against prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Should a disgruntled general try his luck, it is hard to see troops loyal to the current cabal meekly standing aside, which could result in much blood being spilled.
Even without a coup, this month promises to surprise. The constitution requires that politicians be members of a party for at least three months prior to an election, in order to run. That has resulted in something like a political take on musical chairs.
Already, there are signs that parties are emerging with at least a soft spot for Thaksin. Many former Thai Rak Thai politicians, for instance, are turning up at their old headquarters, which is now home to the People's Power Party led by Samak Sundaravej. He is a harsh right-winger, television chef and former cabinet minister currently under investigation for corruption during his tenure as Bangkok governor a few years ago.
Mr Samak speaks highly of Thaksin and slams the junta. His emergence is paralleled by that of retired general Chavalit Yongchaiyudh who, as prime minister in 1997, presided over the collapse of the baht. Although both are probably batting for Thaksin, they may be raising his spectre to extract concessions from the regime.
Clearly, the potential for alliances, possibly supported by Thaksin, is considerable, as must be the temptation for General Sondhi himself to enter politics.
Should he fail, there is the risk of a coalition government rewriting the constitution to cage the military. The Democrat Party has already said it will do just that, should its members lead the next government.
The stage is set for a long-term struggle between the military and the politicians who, nominally at least, represent the people. History elsewhere suggests that the military is likely to be defeated, eventually.
In the short-term, stability will remain fragile. A government intent on redrafting the constitution - let alone one stocked with friends of Thaksin - would be a grave defeat for the coup leaders. What choice would they have but to launch another one?
David Fullbrook is a freelance writer and political analyst
