Thai politics: tangled in a web of manipulation
Police and troops are preparing for violent clashes in Bangkok if, next Wednesday, judges find the Thai Rak Thai and Democrat parties guilty of poll fraud. Punishment could include dissolution and banning their leaders from political office for five years.
The cases hark back to the annulled general election in April last year. By the standards of Thai elections, the charges are not unusual; cheating and manipulation are common. However, the junta, which calls itself the Council for National Security, is pushing the cases hard because it needs to justify seizing power from the Thai Rak Thai government in the bloodless coup in September.
Since then, the generals have accused Thai Rak Thai, and its erstwhile leader Thaksin Shinawatra, of corruption and abusing the 1997 constitution, which was drawn up with public participation after the bloody end to the last military government in May 1992. But their failure to provide hard evidence, coupled with slow progress in corruption cases, is stoking doubts about their motives and eroding public support.
They have not let the Democrats off the hook either, despite their support for the coup. Appearing even-handed may lend a dash of sorely needed credibility to the witch-hunt - but not much. The junta's deeds suggest it is determined to prevent another party gathering as much power as that held by Thai Rak Thai.
After taking power, the council, seemingly with an eye on the pending cases, announced that leaders of dissolved parties could be banned from politics for five years - a punishment that exceeds penalties laid down in the 1997 constitution.
Eliminating from politics Thailand's largest, most popular and best-organised parties, along with their leaders, would help pave the way for a democracy of weak parties and feeble governments, watched over by a strong bureaucracy and an appointed senate. This is the plan suggested by the draft constitution now open for public comment. It would also make life easier for any party willing to do the military's bidding. Some reports suggest the generals have been sounding out Matchima, a party-in-the-making, consisting of 100 MPs with reputations for opportunism rather than sound policy.
Clearly the stakes are huge. Thailand's political journey has reached a juncture where nine Constitution Tribunal judges stand. There are good reasons for believing the outcome will cheer the generals. One judge has admitted that political considerations would weigh on the tribunal's decisions. Neither are the precedents encouraging, as Thai courts often rank among the world's most corrupt.
Leaders of both parties have appealed for their supporters to respect the verdicts. Yet, oddly, the Democrats are canvassing public support, sending the party's innocence plea to 30,000 influential people and groups.
Nevertheless, clashes between protesters and security forces remain a risk. Disorder could open the door to another coup, possibly by disaffected troops. The council will probably hang on, but with dim prospects for its constitution to pass a referendum by September. The junta has promised to resurrect a previous constitution if its plan is defeated. That is another potential trigger for protests, as the generals are unlikely to make the credible choice: the 1997 constitution that they blame for the country's problems.
Surprisingly mild verdicts should not, then, be discounted. The cabal's primary mission is to stay in power long enough to ideally impose the constitution now under review, while strengthening the military's long-term grip on power behind the scenes.
The return of a weak coalition government, beset by squabbling and indecision, is all but certain unless the council relents to order a redrafting of the constitution to include recommendations from academics and civil society. Barring that, the political outlook is cloudy.
David Fullbrook is a freelance writer and political analyst
