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In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we look at the latest in cross-strait relations, with independence-leaning William Lai Ching-te set to take over as Taiwan president next month. Photo: AFP

Economy

Global Impact: Mainland China pins its hopes on Taiwan’s former leader Ma Ying-jeou after meeting Xi Jinping during ‘journey of peace’

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world
In this week’s issue, we look at the latest in cross-strait relations, with independence-leaning William Lai Ching-te set to take over as Taiwan president next month

Taiwan

Xinlu Liangin Beijing

Published: 2:00pm, 29 Apr 2024

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As Taiwan is about to see a changing of the guard amid rising cross-strait tensions, mainland China’s response has been closely watched.

Since the independence-leaning William Lai Ching-te – branded by Beijing as a “separatist” – won the island’s presidential election in January, mainland China has ramped up efforts to win Taiwanese hearts and minds before he takes office in May.

The primary conduit for these efforts is Ma Ying-jeou, the former Taiwanese president who led the island from 2008 to 2016 and still carries weight within the Kuomintang (KMT) opposition party. The KMT is seen as more friendly to mainland China compared to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

Cross-strait relations have soured since President Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP took office in 2016, with Beijing cutting official ties with Taipei after she refused to accept the 1992 Consensus, an agreement between the two sides codifying the one-China principle.

There is no grudge that cannot be resolved. No problem that cannot be talked through

Xi Jinping

Though it has lost three consecutive presidential elections, the KMT is still viewed by Beijing as the most viable political party to guard against inclinations towards independence.

Ma, a private citizen who does not hold any government or party titles, was received by Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of an 11-day “journey of peace” earlier this month. It was their first meeting since 2015, when they held historic talks in Singapore.

Observers have suggested that by showcasing Ma’s visit, China is sending a message to Lai and reaffirming its pursuit of peaceful reunification with Taiwan, despite escalating tensions that have caused concern among regional powers and Western nations.

Both sides sought to strike a conciliatory tone.

“There is no grudge that cannot be resolved. No problem that cannot be talked through. And there are no forces that can separate us,” Xi said.

04:15

‘Foreign interference cannot stop family reunion’: President Xi Jinping hosts Taiwan’s Ma Ying-jeou

Differences in political systems could not change the fact that the two sides were one country, he added, as “foreign interference” cannot stop the historic trend of a “family reunion”.

In response, Ma said, “we are all descendants of the Yellow Emperor, belonging to the same Chinese nation”, and war “would be unbearable”.

Ma returned to the island as a peacemaker and called upon Lai to take note of Xi’s “olive branch”, “confirm the one-China framework based on the constitution” and refrain from “walking the path of independence”.

Lai, meanwhile, has been busy filling his new cabinet, brushing off Ma’s stance as representative of the public. His choices, analysts said, have largely kept with Tsai’s policy, with no explicit desire to alter the cross-strait status quo.

Lai has named confidant Cho Jung-tai, a former DPP chairman and ex-cabinet secretary general, as premier.

Beijing bets on Ma Ying-jeou trip to help win Taiwanese hearts and minds

Known for his relatively moderate stand and skill for communication between rival camps, Cho has been tasked as mediator for a legislature where opposition parties hold the majority and might boycott or veto proposals from the DPP.

Most of the new cabinet members, particularly those within the national security team, are well-known political figures, analysts said, with expertise in managing the intricate dynamics between Beijing and Washington – capable of toeing Beijing’s “bottom line” while seeking closer ties with the US.

Wellington Koo, secretary general of the National Security Council, will become defence minister.

Tsai Ming-yen will remain as leader of the National Security Bureau, while Chiu Chui-cheng, the hawkish deputy secretary general of the semi-official Straits Exchange Foundation, will head the Mainland Affairs Council.

New faces include semiconductor industry veteran Kuo Chih-hui, who was appointed as economy minister – a sign that the government intends to reduce economic reliance on the mainland and promote self-sufficiency in key industries.

01:41

Former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou calls for both sides of Taiwan Strait to ‘avoid war’

Despite greater political tensions, younger Taiwanese are considered more open to the possibility of rapprochement, with both Xi and Ma emphasising youth exchanges.

During his stay, Ma led Taiwanese students to pay tribute at the Huanghuagang Martyrs’ Cemetery and the former home of Sun Yat-sen – modern China’s founding father – in Guangzhou.

Other historic sites included Emperor Qin Shi Huang’s mausoleum in Xian, as well as the Great Wall and Marco Polo Bridge sites in Beijing. The latter still bears scars from the Japanese invasion during World War II.

Observers said young Taiwanese could show more willingness to change their perceptions of the mainland after first-hand observations and interactions with locals.

Chinese social media is also very popular among younger Taiwanese and could serve as a bridge between cultures, according to an article published in a mainland China journal focused on Taiwan affairs.

00:48

Former Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou departs to visit mainland China

After Ma’s trip, more KMT heavyweights were invited to tour the mainland. Ex-Taipei mayor Hau Lung-bin attended a ceremony to honour the Yellow Emperor in Henan province.

Incumbent KMT vice-chairman Sean Lien will also visit the mainland in June for the Cross-Strait Forum, while the party’s former chairwoman Hung Hsiu-chu will lead 200 young Taiwanese on a trip to Zhejiang province.

And despite the KMT and Beijing’s best efforts, the DPP has moved to chip away at historical links with mainland China.

Earlier this week, Taiwan’s interior ministry said it would swiftly remove more than 760 remaining statues of Chiang Kai-shek. Chiang, superintendent of the Whampoa Military Academy, led KMT troops to Taiwan and set up an interim government in 1949 after being defeated by the Communists on the mainland.

Taiwan’s KMT risks irrelevance as it faces pressure for new cross-strait stance

The removal was proposed by a DDP justice commission after finding Chiang had persecuted political dissidents and misused government funds, but analysts said it would be seen “as an unfriendly gesture towards mainland China”.

Meanwhile, Beijing’s “carrot and stick” approach to trade with Taipei has continued, embedding political messages ahead of game-changing events on the island.

Last week, Beijing imposed anti-dumping tariffs on Taiwanese polycarbonates, with duties set to increase by nearly a quarter in advance of Lai’s inauguration in May.

The move follows the suspension of tariff cuts on 12 products from Taiwan in December, just weeks before Lai’s election.

60-Second Catch-up

Ma Ying-jeou urges Taiwan’s next president to respond ‘pragmatically’ to Xi Jinping’s ‘olive branch’.

No problem that can’t be talked through, President Xi Jinping tells Taiwan’s Ma Ying-jeou in historic Beijing talks.

Video: ‘Foreign interference cannot stop family reunion’: President Xi Jinping hosts Taiwan’s Ma Ying-jeou.

Fresh faces for Taiwan’s next cabinet but security left to old hands who know Beijing’s ‘bottom line’.

Taiwan semiconductor veteran JW Kuo named as economy minister as new government signals plans to reduce reliance on mainland China will continue.

Opinion: Taiwan’s incoming government faces tough task to win back public.

Taiwan will tear down all remaining statues of Chiang Kai-shek in public spaces.

Beijing slaps anti-dumping tariffs on Taiwan’s polycarbonates after protracted probe.

Deep dives

Beijing bets on Ma Ying-jeou trip to help win Taiwanese hearts and minds

Analysts believe former Taiwanese leader’s VIP visit to mainland could help Beijing amplify appeals for ‘peaceful reunification’ with the island
Ma’s ‘journey of peace’ also sends well-timed message to Taiwan’s president-elect William Lai Ching-te of the independence-leaning DPP, observers say

When Taiwan’s former leader Ma Ying-jeou was received by mainland Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, he was referred to simply as “Mister Ma” as Beijing walked the tight rope between offering hospitality while refraining from endorsing the island’s government.

Yet he is much more than a “mister” to Beijing. Ma, the first former or sitting Taiwanese president to be received by mainland China’s leader, remains Beijing’s top choice to help it win Taiwanese hearts and minds.

‘Peace destroyer in Taiwan Strait’? Mainland China journal previews William Lai

Election of William Lai has sparked cross-strait ‘uncertainty’ that may worsen if Trump returns to power, article in Taiwan affairs journal says
But Beijing has room for leverage, authors say, as Lai’s DPP has lost legislative majority and young Taiwanese are fans of mainland social media

Political risks across the Taiwan Strait were likely to spike next year but younger Taiwanese could still be won over on social media, observers in mainland China said in a recent article.

According to the article in Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies, a mainland journal focused on Taiwan affairs, a period of “instability” and uncertainty” has set in since self-ruled Taiwan chose independence-leaning candidate William Lai Ching-te to be its next president.

‘No losers in peace’: Taiwan’s Ma Ying-jeou sends anti-war message in Beijing

Island’s former president appeals to younger generations to learn the lessons of history
Speech at museum is part of an 11-day trip to the Chinese mainland that is expected to include a meeting with Xi Jinping

Former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou called on younger generations to learn from the past to “resolve disputes peacefully” during a visit on Monday to a museum in Beijing commemorating the second Sino-Japanese war.

“People in both the mainland and Taiwan had been bullied by Japanese warlords, and suffered heavy casualties. Although we were lagging behind in terms of equipment and training in a disadvantaged situation, we were united in our determination,” he said in a speech at the Museum of the War of the Chinese People’s Resistance Against Japanese Aggression.

Beijing slaps anti-dumping tariffs on polycarbonates from Taiwan

From Saturday, imports of the thermoplastic polymer from Taiwan will be charged extra duty of up to 22.4 per cent, commerce ministry in Beijing says
Move to be in place for five years, ministry statement says, as Beijing appears to lean on trade tools to push cross-strait message

Beijing has imposed anti-dumping tariffs on Taiwanese polycarbonates, with duties to go up by nearly a quarter from Saturday.

Imports of the thermoplastic polymer from Taiwan will be charged the extra duty for the next five years, the mainland Ministry of Commerce said in a statement issued on Friday.

Taiwan’s former leader Ma Ying-jeou rejects Japan’s claims to Diaoyu Islands

Taiwanese ex-president denies disputed Diaoyus are Japanese territory after being shown ancient manuscripts at mainland museum, Xinhua says
Taipei also views the island chain as part of its territory

Former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou has weighed in on the debate over the Diaoyu Islands, saying Japanese claims to the disputed island chain are at odds with historical records.

During a Saturday visit to a museum in the ancient imperial city of Xian in mainland China, Ma was shown ancient manuscripts that he said proved that the islands “do not belong to Ryukyu” – the name of a kingdom that was a Chinese tributary state for more than 500 years until it was annexed by Japan in 1879.

Global Impact is a weekly curated newsletter featuring a news topic originating in China with a significant macro impact for our newsreaders around the world.